Biden faces money test despite entering 2020 race as top Democrat

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Joe Biden didn't trouble the delegate scoreboard in bids for the U.S. Democratic presidential nomination in 1988 or 2008 – in fact, he didn't make it out of Iowa – but on Thursday he entered the crowded 2020 field as the party's frontrunner.

The 76-year-old is the 20th candidate to enter the Democratic contest and does so as the polling favorite, but he will face a serious fight to win the nomination.

He has over 45 years of political experience, is revered for his empathy and fondly remembered as Barack Obama's vice president, but is also a moderate, gaffe-prone, older white man in an increasingly young and diverse Democratic Party.

Money and polls

Biden's delayed arrival in the race has allowed rival candidates to build momentum, yet in most polls he has a lead of around 10 points over Bernie Sanders, with Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg the next closest challengers.

With nine months to go until the 2020 Iowa caucuses, much can change however, and there's little doubt that the popular Biden's poll rating is currently boosted by broad name recognition.

Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden poses for a selfie after addressing the International Association of Fire Fighters in Washington, U.S., March 12, 2019. /Reuters Photo

The former vice president's first real test will be fundraising. In a conference call on Wednesday, he conceded that "we're going to be judged by what we can do in the first 24 hours, first week."

Beto O'Rourke took in 6.1 million U.S. dollars in online donations in the 24 hours after he declared his candidacy, while Sanders raised 5.9 million and Harris brought in 1.5 million.

Small-dollar donations are particularly important for Democrats looking to avoid big money and PAC support. This could be an issue for Biden, who is not an obvious online fundraiser and is entering the race late. He is likely to rely on the traditional Democratic fundraising machine.

Experience ups and downs

Biden has over 45 years of political experience. His policy knowledge and understanding of government will be seen by many as an asset and is a clear contrast to the political outsider currently in the Oval Office.

Striking workers gather outside a Stop & Shop store following a speech by former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., April 18, 2019. /Reuters Photo

But a long record brings liabilities as well as assets. In an increasingly diverse Democratic Party, some of Biden's past positions, comments and behavior are causing controversy.

Biden's near half century in public life also means there's little voters don't know about him and his story.

He has a net favorability rating of 61 percent among Democratic voters, according to an April 15-21 Morning Consult poll – but it's unclear whether he has a fresh message.

Who backs Joe?

The veteran will try to reunite the "Obama coalition" – mobilizing minority and young voters alongside working-class white supporters – and essentially run as a third Obama term, something he probably would have done in 2016 had it not been for the death of his son Beau a year earlier.

But by describing himself as an "Obama-Biden Democrat" in an era of progressives and Democratic Socialists he will struggle to excite voters looking for more radical change.

And in a diverse field, it is questionable whether he is the candidate to energize minority and young voters. With several viable and very different alternatives, the coalition which propelled Obama to victory is likely to be splintered during primary season.

While Biden is unlikely to call for the broad systemic reform championed by candidates like Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, a more moderate approach could have broader general appeal, however.

Democratic U.S. 2020 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks at a rally in downtown Los Angeles, California, U.S., March 23, 2019. /Reuters Photo

Trump-beater?

Ultimately Biden's chances will likely rest on whether Democrats opt for head or heart. The heart of the party is moving leftwards, but the head is focused on beating Trump.

Convincing Democrats that he is best-placed to beat to win the presidency is Biden's best road to success, and recent polling gives him a beyond-the-margin-of-error lead. A RealClearPolitics average of polls over the past month puts Biden 7.8 points up on Trump.

The former vice president holds appeal in the industrial Midwest, where Trump outperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, as well as with moderate voters -- right-leaning Democrats, Trump-opposing Republicans and independents.

Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers' (IBEW) construction and maintenance conference in Washington, U.S., April 5, 2019. /Reuters Photo

He may have to come up with a gimmick – such as a pledge to serve only one term – to convince some, but his insider status could be pivotal come the Democratic convention on July 13-16, 2020 in Wisconsin.

The Democrats haven't had a contested convention since 1952, but a combination of the crowded field – which includes several candidates adept at raising the funds to stay in the race to the end of the process – the proportional attribution of delegates and the absence of superdelegates in the first round of voting mean more than one ballot may well be needed in 2020. In a second round, establishment ties could be critical.

But for Biden, money is the first primary of the Democratic race. His fundraising numbers over the coming days will say a lot about the future of his campaign.

(Cover: Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden holds up his notes while speaking at a rally with striking Stop & Shop workers in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., April 18, 2019. /Reuters Photo)

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