"I can tell you one thing right now. Our gun laws will change." After the appalling mass shooting at Christchurch mosques on March 15 that left 50 people dead, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern quickly responded at the press conference with a determined note to change the country's gun laws.

And the government is moving swiftly too, with a new announcement on March 21 that all military-style semi-automatic guns and assault rifles will be banned. It seems that the Christchurch massacre has become a watershed for the country's gun law changes. "It is very likely that gun law will change this time", said Che Hu, assistant professor of China University of Political Science and Law Research.

As a developed agricultural country, "New Zealand has a long history of using guns in the villages," but Che argued that gun use is more "practical than ideological" compared to the U.S, where the "right to keep and bear arms" is written in the Constitution.

Thus while there could be resistance from pro-gun lobby groups and agriculture constituencies in New Zealand, Che suggested that they would be less powerful than anti-gun control powers in the U.S., which could make it likely for the gun laws to be passed.  

"The government is not banning all guns but those dangerous and deadly ones. So demands such as hunting and pest control in rural areas can still be satisfied," said Che.  

The latest change to New Zealand's gun laws was in 1992, also after a mass shooting. 13 people, including four children, were killed in a fight between neighbors. The then-Police Minister John Banks vowed that the same would never happen again in New Zealand. That law, which added further restrictions to firearms, was passed by the Parliament but it seemed that there have been no significant changes regarding gun laws since then.

Ardern said that attempts have been made in 2005, 2012 and 2017 respectively to change gun laws but all failed. It seems that earlier, there was no need to make such "unnecessary" changes, Che pointed out that the number of homicide and gun-related death are much lower than other developed countries. According to the gunpolicy.org, the total number of gun deaths in New Zealand was 55 in 2016, compared with 38,658 deaths in the U.S. and 820 in Germany in the same year.

But the public debate raised by the Christchurch massacre has been just too powerful to ignore. New Zealand's rather "relaxed" gun policy came under the spotlight and criticism again. Although there are extensive investigations and training for someone who wishes to get a license, most types of guns don't need registration.

This means officials have little idea about the flow of guns among the people and makes the option to regulate basically off the table. In the meantime, due to the low homicide rate, most New Zealand policemen do not routinely carry guns. This looks even more worrisome when compared to the high rate gun ownership which equates to one gun for three people, according to New Zealand Police.

"It was really shocking for the New Zealanders to see the sheer loads of guns the perpetrator (of the Christchurch) has," Che pointed out, "It was indeed a watershed moment for NZ to realize that they need to change their gun laws."

Sadly, history teaches us that it often takes a mass shooting tragedy to change a country's gun law. "But that's human nature," said Chris Cahill, president of the New Zealand Police Association.

It might not be too late. Although the issue of white supremacy and the threat of the far right also needs to be properly addressed, stricter gun laws could be the first and effective measure to counter gun violence, as proved by its neighboring country, Australia's experience.

After the Port Arthur massacre in 1996, the deadliest mass shooting in Australia, in which 35 people were killed, it only took 12 days for the country to pass the National Firearms Agreement which banned rapid-fire guns. It also established a buy-back program to semi-automatic and pump-action rifles and shotguns. Although there could be other contributing factors, research did show that gun-involved suicide rates have dropped by 75 percent and since then there has only been one mass shooting in 23 years.

Various research has shown that across developed countries, there is a positive correlation between gun availability and homicide rate. It takes one gun to break hearts, raise fear and sometimes make emotional divide; it takes very complicated efforts to make gun law changes but they are worth the endeavor.