The Summer Olympics, where more than 5,000 gold medals have been dished out since 1896, are a captivating assembly of Davids and Goliaths, successes and fiascos, euphoria and disappointment.

自1896年首届现代奥林匹克运动会举行以来,夏季奥运会已产生了5000余枚金牌。无论是体坛巨擘还是无名小卒,都曾在奥运赛场经历欣喜若狂的释放和不堪回首的悲伤,上演一鸣惊人的崛起和坠入深渊的无常。

While much of the sporting extravaganza's beauty lies in its unpredictable confrontations and idiosyncratic surprises, some participants have such a commanding position in certain Olympic sports that the highest honor in those disciplines can be all but a foregone conclusion before the competition has even begun.

奥运会最大的魅力在于其巅峰对决的不可预知性,胜负难测、冷门迭爆。然而,由于有些参赛代表在某些项目上拥有巨大的优势,以致于比赛尚未开始,赢家就近乎提前揭晓。

How did "monopolies" emerge at the Games? Which countries or regions have been the most dominant? Is it possible for an Olympic minnow to clinch a large haul of golds?

哪些参赛国家或地区的优势最为明显?“配角”是否存在逆袭夺金的可能?

CGTN visualized all the gold medals awarded to athletes at past Summer Olympics.

Note: Only medals in sports that are still on the current Olympic program were tallied.

CGTN对历届夏季奥运会颁发过的金牌和获得相应金牌的国家和地区进行了数据可视化分析,通过大数据揭开夏奥夺金的秘密。

注:该数据仅统计现有的奥运竞赛项目。

This graphic maps all Olympic sports according to the number of gold medals given out and the number of countries and regions that have won gold.

With most dots tightly clustered around the best fit line, it suggests gold medals have been consistently distributed among countries across most disciplines.

在该交互图中,绝大多数圆点紧密地聚集在拟合线周围。这表明,金牌数量与夺金国家和地区数量之间总体呈正相关关系,即颁发的金牌越多,相应的夺金国家和地区就越多。

A couple of dots clearly above the line – indicating sports where medals have gone to a higher than average number of countries and regions – show that some Olympic disciplines, including football, taekwondo and triathlon, have thrived on their unpredictability.

而一些圆点则明显位于拟合线上方。这意味着,项目充满着极大的不确定性,足球、跆拳道和铁人三项等皆是如此。

Football

Only eight countries have won the men's FIFA World Cup, but an utterly different scenario has played out at the Olympics, which has produced 22 winning countries in 26 Summer Games.

Brazil, which has a record five World Cup titles, only ended its long wait for Olympic gold after beating Germany on home soil at Rio 2016.

足球

男足世界杯举办至今,仅有8个国家有幸捧得“大力神杯”。相比之下,奥运会的男足比赛则是百花齐放。在过往26届夏季奥运会中,共有22个国家先后站在男足的最高领奖台上。

以“五星”巴西为例,直到2016年在本土举行的里约奥运会上,“桑巴军团”才通过点球大战击败德国,首次品尝到奥运冠军的滋味。

Taekwondo

Taekwondo has proven to be a rich source of Olympic glory for South Korea for many years, with the country topping the overall medal table with 12 golds. But the competition has now been thrown wide open by the emergence of a host of rising forces, with China leading the pack.

跆拳道

韩国多年来均是跆拳道项目的夺金大户,目前仍以12枚奥运金牌的总数独占鳌头。然而,随着以中国为代表的一大批新势力的崛起,如今的跆拳道赛场也已呈现百花齐放的态势。

Some sports, such as table tennis, basketball, synchronized swimming, beach volleyball, badminton, fencing and diving, are dominated by a few giants who never accept second best.

For them, specialization is the rule, not the exception. If there's an Olympic table tennis final, chances are a Chinese athlete is in it. And a Brazilian has claimed a gold or silver medal at every Olympic beach volleyball event.

一些奥运项目,如,乒乓球、篮球、花样游泳、沙滩排球、羽毛球、击剑和跳水等,则存在被少数夺金国家长期占据优势的现象。

这些超级强国是金牌获得者的不二人选,夺冠几无悬念。正如乒乓球决赛现场必有中国选手的身影,巴西选手则是沙滩排球决赛的常客——每一届夏季奥运会上,他们都能斩获该项目的金牌或银牌。

All of this leads to a compelling question as sports fans prepare to watch the world's finest athletes dazzle in the Japanese capital: Which countries or regions will flex their muscles in what Olympic sport?

当全球各地的顶尖运动员在日本东京齐聚一堂,准备向奥运殿堂的最高荣誉发起冲击之时,一个重要的问题呼之欲出:究竟哪些参赛国家或地区在哪些项目上一骑绝尘呢?

众所周知,在奥运会的众多项目中,个别项目有绝对优势力量的存在。

While China is the undisputed champion in table tennis, racking up 28 of the 32 golds on offer, the U.S. has topped the rest of the world in basketball. Of the 30 possible golds in the event, the U.S. has won all but seven.

中国是无可争议的乒乓球“霸主”。自1988年乒乓球被列入奥运项目以来,中国队已囊括32枚金牌中的28枚。 美国则是在篮球独步天下,在该项目产生的30枚金牌中,仅有7枚金牌“逃出”了美国的手掌心。

China has enjoyed similar superiority in badminton, with 18 out of 34 golds going to Chinese shuttlers.

It's worth noting that China is the only country ever to complete a clean sweep of medals in that sport at the Olympics, with its players powering to gold in all five events at London 2012.

中国在羽毛球项目的优势同样明显。在已产生的34枚羽毛球金牌中,有18枚被中国选手收入囊中。

尤为值得一提的是,中国曾在2012年伦敦奥运会包揽了羽毛球全部5个项目的金牌。这一成就至今仍无人企及。

Russia has demonstrated similar prowess in artistic swimming (formerly known as synchronised swimming), clinching 10 of the 18 golds on offer in the sport.

Since the 2000 Sydney Games, Russia has won both the team and duet events at every Olympics, leaving the U.S., Canada, Japan and China far behind.

在花样游泳的赛场,俄罗斯则凭借高超的技艺一枝独秀。在该项目产生的18枚金牌中,有10枚都被俄罗斯队摘得。

自2000年悉尼奥运会以来,俄罗斯在每届赛事都包揽集体和双人两个项目的金牌,将美国、加拿大、日本和中国甩在身后。

But there's no guarantee that Olympic dominance will last forever, and some events have witnessed a stunning shift in power in recent decades.

有趣的是,奥运“霸主”在赛场上的优势地位并非牢不可破。一些项目经过数十年的发展,领头羊的国别亦有惊人的变化。

Diving had been the domain of the U.S. for a long time, and nobody could stop the Americans from coming up on top in the Olympics until 1984, when China made its presence felt in Los Angeles.

Since then, Chinese divers have had a scintillating run of form that has seen them topple their U.S. rivals.

美国曾在奥运跳水项目中战无不胜、所向披靡。直到1984年洛杉矶奥运会, 中国才得以厚积薄发、崭露头角。

此后,中国便开启“逆袭”模式,使跳水成为中国的优势项目。

Fencing has traditionally had a strong association with three European leviathans.

Italy, France and Hungary account for more than half of the fencing golds awarded in Olympic history. But Russia has been a nation on the rise in the sport, winning medals at every Olympic Games since 1992.

击剑一直是欧洲三大巨头的传统优势项目, 意大利 法国 匈牙利收获了该项目半数以上的奥运金牌。

此外, 俄罗斯逐渐成为一支不容小觑的力量,在1992年后的每届奥运会上都有奖牌收获。

By tracking the medal count of sporting powerhouses over the past century, one can chronicle the gripping history of the Games.

The patterns are clear: some classic Olympic events have turned into hunting grounds for a couple of titans. But there are still many sports where it remains remarkably difficult to tell who the favorites are.

追踪各个奥运“霸主”近一个多世纪以来奖牌数量的起起落落,无异于是对整个奥运精彩历史的梳理与回眸,个中趋势与变化亦逐渐清晰可见:一些经典项目已成为少数豪强的“后花园”,而另有一些则演化为群雄并起的激烈角逐。

Methodology

Based on the current Olympic program of the Tokyo Games, we gathered all the relevant gold medal data since the inception of the modern Olympics in 1896.

In order to make the data distribution more obvious, we processed the coordinate axes of the scatter plot and drew a best fit line as an output of regression analysis. Then we conducted residual analysis to find the "outliers" – where the gold medals are in the hands of a relatively small number of countries. The "outliers" were highlighted on the scatter plot, and further analyzed in the second half of the project.

方法论

在数据处理上,本项目根据本届东京奥运会所设大项,爬取了自1896年首届现代奥运会以来所有该项目颁发的金牌数据。

为使散点图的数据分布趋势更为清晰,本项目对坐标轴进行处理后、对图上所有数据点进行了线性拟合并绘制拟合线;随后通过残差分析找到离群值——也就是金牌数量相对集中在少数国家的奥运项目,在散点图上进行了高亮呈现并在本项目的后半部分展开了具体分析。

Sources

数据来源

International Olympic Committee (Data as of June 2021)

国际奥委会(数据截至2021年6月)

Credits

Editors: Hu Zhicheng, Sim Sim Wissgott, John Goodrich.

Data Editors: Hu Xuechen, Shi Tao.

Data Analyst: Ou Yue.

Chief Editor: Chen Ran.

Visual Designer: Feng Yuan.

Interactive Designer: Li Yixiao.

Interactive Engineer: Zhu Sirui.

Product Manager: Hu Yiwei.

Project Coordinator: Li Jing.

Multimedia Producer: Xu Jiye.

Producer: Dang Zheng.

Executive Producers: Si Nan, Liu Yuqi.

Managing Director: Zhang Shilei.

Supervisors: Fan Yun, Ma Jing.

制作名单

文字编辑:胡芝诚、Sim Sim Wissgott、John Goodrich
数据编辑:胡雪琛、石韬
数据分析:欧玥
主编:陈姌
视觉设计:冯源
交互设计:李怡晓
交互研发:朱思睿
产品经理:胡祎玮
项目协调:李晶
多媒体制作人:徐纪业
制作人:党正
总制作人:司楠、刘育淇
总监:张施磊
监制:范昀、麻静