Opinions
2019.05.28 08:29 GMT+8

Will Trump's plan bring peace to Israel and Palestine?

Wang Jin

Editor's Note: Dr. Wang Jin is a research fellow at Charhar Institute in China and a research fellow from the Syria Research Center of Northwest University in China. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As the most important plan designing the political landscape for the future of the Middle East, U.S. president Donald Trump's peace plan for Israel and Palestine, or called by some as the "century deal," might be published in June at the "Peace to Prosperity" Forum held in Bahrain. 

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the upcoming peace plan will not only help Palestinians "realize their full potentials," but also help the leaders in the Middle East to "promote economic growth and opportunities." 

Will the new peace plan really bring "eternal peace" to the Middle East, especially to the Israelis and Palestinians?

The quest for peace in the Middle East is one of the most challenging issues in international affairs, and generations of politicians and experts have tried their best to overcome the deepest cleavages between Israelis and Palestinians lasted for more than a century.

The U.S. has been an important mediator for Israel-Palestine issue, or a major Middle East actor for more than half a century. When Donald Trump assumes the presidency in early 2017, he also expressed his ambition to resolve the Israel-Palestine issue through a new framework.

Jerusalem's city hall in Jerusalem, Israel, December 7, 2017. /VCG Photo 

The "facilitator" tactic worked in the United States' mediation over the Israel-Egypt peace process in the 1970s; however, it did not work in the peace process between Israel and Palestine after the mid-1990s. 

On the one hand, both Israelis and Palestinians face more and more apparent internal divisions. The Israeli parliament, or the Knesset, has been dominated by right-wing parties ever since the early 2000s and it makes any major territorial concessions from Israel to Palestine very difficult.

Palestinians' internal division is much deeper than Israelis', the rivalries between the PLO-led Palestine Authority (PA) in the West Bank and the Hamas controlled Gaza Strip actually separates the Palestinians, while Hamas could describe any concessions made by PA representative towards Israel as "traitor." No concessions, no agreement, and no peace.

Both Israelis and Palestinians set "preconditions" for the peace process. For the PA side, they believe the precondition for the peace negotiation should be Israel's suspension of Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and the release of the Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

However, for Israel, they believe the precondition for the peace negotiation with Palestinians should be PA's suspension of subsidies to the Palestinian "terrorist families." 

Given that Israel government has no will and capabilities to influence the "settlement groups" sponsored by various Jewish organizations, and PA's unwillingness to suspend the subsidies to martyrs otherwise they could not receive public support from Palestinians, the "preconditions" actually become the obstacles that are impossible to overcome.

Trump's design might be separated into two parts. On the one hand, Trump wants the regional states to recognize the "status quo," which means the regional states should "respect" and "recognize" Israel's "legal rights" in Jerusalem and Golan Heights.

From Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as the "capital of Israel" to moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, from his support to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his recognizing the Golan Heights as Israel territories, Trump and his Middle East advisers are trying to make direct and bold attempts in the peace process between Israel and Palestine.

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York, USA, September 26, 2018. /VCG Photo 

Trump requests its allies in the Middle East to sponsor his plan, and he hopes to realize his ambitions "peace deal" to Israel-Palestine peace through financial aids to Palestinians. His formula might be concluded as "money for peace," not the traditional "land for peace" notion for Israel-Palestine issue. Against this backdrop, Trump's administration tries to transform itself from "facilitator" to "designer" for Israel-Palestine peace. Trump's logic might be very simple: Israelis and Palestinians are not able to resolve their conflict, and Americans could arrange the future as a "designer."

For the U.S. allies, especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Israel, Trump's "designer" role seems good. For these states, the most pressing threat in the region is Iran, and it is highly necessary and urgent for different regional states to unite together to resist the "expansion" of Iran in the Middle East.

Once the Israel and Palestine "eternal peace" is realized, Israel and Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and other Arab states are able to start official and formal communications, and a regional military alliance might be signed between Israel and other Arab states to resist the "Iranian threat."

However, Trump's "peace plan," or the "century plan," ignores the Palestinians. After Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, it makes impossible for any PA or the Palestinian political figures from any Palestinian political camp to attend the peace process mediated by the United States. 

Without the support of Palestinian people, how could the "eternal peace" between Israel and Palestine be realized?

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