Opinions
2019.05.28 12:50 GMT+8

Pyongyang's divide and rule game against the White House

Tom Fowdy

Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities. He writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the U.S. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As President Donald Trump commences with his tour of Japan, a lot has been said on the topic of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Yesterday following talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the President kept the door open for dialogue with Pyongyang. In doing so, he reaffirmed his "excellent relationship" with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un and played down claims that the country's two recent short-range missile tests were in violation of UN resolutions, putting him publicly at odds with his own national security advisor John Bolton who had claimed the contrary.

In the background, Pyongyang has been aggressively singling out Bolton for criticism, having recently branded him as "ignorant," a "warmonger" and describing him as having a "different mental structure from ordinary people" in a series of press releases. The growing barrage of insults appears to have been encouraged not only by Trump's public dismissal of Bolton's remarks but also by a recent fiasco which saw Trump publicly praise Kim Jong Un on Twitter for insulting Democratic election rival Joe Biden.

A screenshot of U.S. President Donald Trump's tweet

What exactly is going on here? The DPRK has grown to believe that their best strategy in winning concessions from the U.S. is to play a divide and rule game against the presidential administration itself. Comprehending the foreign policy dynamics of the White House team well, Pyongyang is aiming to win Trump's favor on a personal level while setting him against members of his cabinet deemed more hardline or neoconservative. 

This has seen the DPRK repeatedly lash out against Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and John Bolton while being cordial towards the President, hoping to exploit Trump's characteristic self-gratification to win a favorable deal.

As the old saying goes "know your enemy," and for all the country is stereotyped as irrational and unrestrained, the DPRK places strenuous efforts into understanding the political roadmap of the U.S. in the view to diplomacy. When U.S. diplomats met with their DPRK counterparts a year ago, a source described the Koreans as having an "encyclopedic" knowledge of Donald Trump's tweets to give an example. In this sense, they have placed extensive effort in understanding the administration on a person by person level, closely examining the political positions and personalities of each member.

People pose for a photograph with a picture of DPRK leader Kim Jung Un and U.S. President Donald Trump outside the Hanoi Opera House in Hanoi, Vietnam, February 28, 2019. /VCG Photo

In doing so, Pyongyang have identified the differences and divisions within the White House. They note that Donald Trump enjoys being in the spotlight and overtly taking credit for things. They also note that he has a tendency to dismiss and remove appointees who are deemed to get in his way. In doing so, they observe that certain elements of the administration, most specifically John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, have been the primary manufacturers of a hardline U.S. stance against Pyongyang that refuse to offer any concessions to the country in pursuit of absolute denuclearization.

As a result, Kim has sought to divide the administration by isolating those more hostile to diplomacy with his country and simultaneously upholding favor with Trump, in essence, a selective game of carrots and sticks. For example, a month ago Pyongyang declared that it would no longer host any meetings with Mike Pompeo owing to his stance on talks. Now, it is singling out John Bolton. These are not random or juvenile insults, but calculated moves. One may note that since diplomacy began, the DPRK has never said any negative about Trump whatsoever.

U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton watches as President Donald Trump presents the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy to the U.S. Military Academy Football Team, the U.S. Army's "West Point Black Knights," in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., May 6, 2019. /VCG Photo

Instead, it is continuing to engage on personal a charm offensive. Pyongyang's attack on Joe Biden earned Trump's public praise, which in turn has been reciprocated by a shutdown of Bolton's claim that the recent missile tests violated UN resolutions. Encouraged, the DPRK is now escalating rhetoric against the national security advisor with the hope that Trump will see this rhetoric and perceive Bolton as a disruption to the diplomatic process, politically marginalizing him. 

This also reduces the chance of the U.S. returning to a confrontational posture against the DPRK. Thus Kim is not only weakening hawkish members of the administration but is also enhancing his leverage simultaneously by aiming to place the White House in political paralysis.

In conclusion, what the public may see as random and impulsive insults by Pyongyang is, in fact, a shrewd and well-calculated game of diplomacy being played against the White House. Recognizing in the aftermath of the Hanoi summit that John Bolton has gained too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, Pyongyang are now moving to politically contain his influence and checkmate him through a personal appeal to Trump himself. Even if this does not change the U.S. negotiating position as a whole, it is a tactic that actually serves to reduce pressure on Pyongyang and weaken Washington's leverage.

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