Editor's note: This article is based on an interview with Li Haidong, professor at the Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University (CFAU). The article reflects the expert's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
With the withering influences of the ongoing China-U.S. trade war, the U.S. economy is starting to feel more pain. This time it is not just about some general economic figures, but also complaints from U.S. companies and consumers.
According to The Wall Street Journal, while U.S. President Donald Trump advocates that a new round of tariffs will enhance the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers, the U.S. trade representative’s office has been flooded with complaining letters from U.S. companies regarding the losses caused by the trade war.
“The politicization of economic and trade issues has won an upper hand in the U.S. government, making the U.S. blur the reciprocal essence of economic issues and stick to the ‘my loss, your gain’ stereotype,” said Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations, CFAU.
However, the complementarity of China and U.S. economy is strong with dense contacts, which means that the U.S.-initiated trade war will not only inflict losses on Chinese companies, but also on the American companies, Li added.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 13, 2019. /VCG photo
Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1979, China and the U.S. have enjoyed fast-developing economic exchanges, with the trade volume in goods increasing from less than 2.5 billion U.S. dollars in 1978 to 633.5 billion dollars in 2018.
But the Trump administration’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese goods means the U.S. economy will experience disproportionate losses. For the short term, American consumers are expected to bear the brunt of the costs with higher prices and lower consumption. For example, the U.S. imported 29.8 billion U.S. dollars worth of clothing and 25.8 billion U.S. dollars worth of furniture from China. With higher tariffs, American consumers will have to pay higher prices, harming their consumption ability and enthusiasm.
It is reported that in a letter to Trump on June 13, American companies including Walmart highlighted that current and proposed tariffs would increase costs to a family of four by an average of 2,000 U.S. dollars per year.
In the long run, the U.S. economy will suffer from more lingering and serious influences. In Li’s view, it has taken dozens of years for American companies to cultivate a profitable market for themselves in China; Nevertheless, the tariff war may shrink this market, surrendering it to companies from other countries. And the losses for American companies can be huge and far-reaching as the cultivation of such a market needs time.
Chinese-made jackets at a Manhattan department store in New York City, U.S., May 7, 2019. /VCG Photo
Furthermore, the tariff war will lower the competitiveness of the U.S. market at the international level. A large portion of U.S. imports from China goes to production inputs. Last year, the top U.S. imports have been computers and electronics, amounting up to 186.5 billion U.S. dollars. Higher tariffs will raise the prices of these goods, thus harming U.S. competitiveness and productivity, and therefore its economic potential.
As serious as the likely impacts are, the businessman Trump seems to be not satisfied with only targeting China. Mexico, Japan and India are also on his tariff agenda. India has started to impose tariffs, as high as 70 percent, on 28 U.S. products from June 16, in response to the U.S. refusal to exempt it from higher taxes on steel and aluminum imports.
According to Li, with Washington waving the tariff stick on a larger scale, the international community may become increasingly willing to use other currencies instead of U.S. dollar as the trade settlement tool, shaking the dominating role of the greenback in global financial markets as well as impacting the operation of American companies in the world.
“Although always touting out an ‘America First’ strategy, Trump, in fact, goes in the opposite direction, tarnishing its global image,” Li said.
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