Boris edges closer to Downing Street
Updated 11:04, 20-Jun-2019
Tom Fowdy
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Editor's Note: Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities. He writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the United States. This article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Boris Johnson continued his dominance of the Conservative Party leadership race last night by topping the second round of voting, gaining the preferences of 126 party MPs, nearly three times as many as the second placed Jeremy Hunt. Drawing from already eliminated candidates, he increased his vote tally from the previous round.

The former London Mayor and four other candidates will now move into the next ballot, with Dominic Rabb eliminated, having failed to meet the 33-vote threshold. The process of elimination will continue until only two candidates are left, who will then be put before a final vote to a party membership.

It’s all good news for Boris. Continuing to maintain a number of Parliamentary endorsements above any other candidate, the chances of him being eliminated before the membership stage is extremely unlikely.

Opponents of Boris Johnson within the Conservative party are hoping that a considerable number of MPs can unite behind an alternative candidate and overwhelm the former London mayor before he runs away with the contest.

Amongst the other contenders, there are two options out of the remaining challengers widely being touted to do so. Firstly, Environmental Secretary Michael Gove, another member of the party’s right wing Eurosceptic faction who is attempting to divide Boris’s support, and then secondly, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt who is part of the centrist status-quo faction which Theresa May leads.

The goal of both will be to seize as many endorsements from exiting Dominic Rabb as possible, aiming to spur momentum in their favor and draw support from Boris at the last moment.

However, analysts are casting doubt on this, with the BBC believing that most of Dominic’s support will drift towards the former Mayor, meaning the probability is the chances of somehow knocking him out of the final two contenders is near impossible. Whilst the Conservative Party is obviously divided bitterly owing to Boris’s reputation as a controversial figure, nevertheless his connections, informal authority and profile make him impossible to dislodge.

MP Boris Johnson speaks during a Conservative Leadership televised debate in London, England, June 18, 2019. /VCG Photo

MP Boris Johnson speaks during a Conservative Leadership televised debate in London, England, June 18, 2019. /VCG Photo

So assuming a disaster does not occur in the meanwhile, Boris will inevitably be put on the ballot before party members. His critics have good reason to fear this: The grassroots Conservative party is more dominantly right wing, populist and Eurosceptic, with moderation largely operating in the upper echelons of the organization due to its familiarity with governance. The polling reflects this reality, with YouGov surveys showing Boris holding a strong lead against every rival in head to head matchups. One may fear from this that his march towards 10 Downing Street is completely unabated.

As a result, Britain and the world should prepare for the likelihood of Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister. For all issues pertaining to the country’s economy, society and general stability, such a possibility has extremely negative connotations. On the matter of Brexit, greater uncertainty and tensions with Europe await, the country’s relationship with China may also take a downturn as Boris would have no reservations of facilitating a greater relationship with the White House.

Ultimately, the Former Mayor’s unwavering progress is an indication that right wing populist forces have advanced from the fringes to the core of British politics itself and may be about to claim Downing Street, mirroring the experience of the United States with Trump and the Republican Party whereby the party’s center was absorbed and forced rightwards. This means that the flow of UK politics may change permanently.

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