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2019.09.17 18:06 GMT+8

Experts: China-Russia ties are impossible to break

Updated 2019.09.17 18:06 GMT+8
Dialogue with Yang Rui

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang begins a three-day visit to Russia, which comes as the two countries celebrate 70 years of diplomatic ties and look to start a new era in their relations. China and Russia hope to cooperate further in dealing with major issues, as big changes continue to impact the world order. So, what could bilateral relations look like in the new era? What are some of the lessons from the past 70 years? And where does the U.S. fit into the picture?

Zhao Hai, a research fellow from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says China-Russia bilateral relations are very unique and enjoy a long history. Comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation and coordination in the new era means that the bilateral ties have been upgraded once again to a new level.

"In the past 70 years, there have been ups and downs in this relationship. From exactly 70 years ago, the New China was established. The Soviet Union was the first to recognize China and back then, they were in this honeymoon period for a couple of years when the two countries were very close. They actually signed a treaty to become allies. Later on there was a roller coaster relationship between the two countries. But today we are having the best relationship in history, comparable to the early 1950s."

Victor Olevich, political analyst and lead expert at the Center for Actual Politics in Moscow, believes Premier Li’s visit is a manifestation of the sound relationship.

"The visit by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Moscow and the fact that he is going to have a meeting with not just his counterpart Medvedev, but also with Putin, speaks a lot to how important the relationship with China is for Moscow."

Zhao further explained that in international politics, common interest is more important and serves as the base for building common trust.

"Over the years China and Russia share more and more common interest because of the common treat and geopolitical changes in the last 10 to 20 years. For Russia, that awakening came in 2007 when the West decided to expand NATO further east. And for China, when the United States challenged China's sovereignty in East and South China Sea. So in many cases, it is this third power, the United States, that gave the incentive and motivated the two countries to get closer to form this strategic partnership of coordination."

Rick Dunham, visiting scholar from Tsinghua University, agrees that the U.S. has been a huge influence in China-Russia ties.

"During the Cold War, there was the Kissinger theory of triangulation of playing off China and Soviet Union to see how the United States could drive a wedge in between. With the demise of the Soviet Union, it changed because China was seen as the second most important nation in the world, and America was the sole superpower. Now you have a fractured world, Russia has clearly come on as a military and a social media power, but it's not an economic power. China is an economic and military power. And the United States now wants to figure out how the United States can triangulate. Donald Trump wanted to move toward Russia, but there has been a lot of resistance in the establishment in America and in the Congress to that."

When asked if any third party could drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow, Victor Olevich states it is highly unlikely to happen.

"Attempts by Washington and some of its allies to sow mistrust between Moscow and Beijing, and possibly to break in with offers to either one, are bound to fail in the near future, simply because Moscow understands very clearly that anything that the United States has to offer is less than what Russia would risk for confrontation with China. Russia does not want any confrontation with China for some benefits from the West."

On the reason why China and Russia would not consider forming an alliance, Zhao explains that "different from the Cold War era, now the two countries combined have enough deterrence to any threat from the outside. They don't need to formalize this alliance. Also China in principle is a non-alliance country so China does not recognize the value of military alliance, particularly in the Asia-Pacific."

At the same time, China is importing more and more agricultural products from Russia. Dunham thinks that China does not want to be dependent on the United States for food imports in light of the trade war, and Russia can be part of the solution.

"China, after the trade war, is going to be pursuing alternative strategies that it is never too dependent on any one country, especially when that country calls itself a strategic rival."

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com)

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