Editor's note: Tom Fowdy graduated from Oxford University's China Studies Program and majored in politics at Durham University and writes about international relations focusing on China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On September 20, the United States government put into motion over 437 tariff exemptions from American companies regarding imports from Beijing, a move widely interpreted as easing the growing burden placed upon businesses due to the rapid acceleration of President Trump's trade war. 

In doing so, U.S.-China officials wrapped up a round of talks in Washington which the U.S. side described as "productive." However, the Chinese delegation cut short their visit and canceled a proposed trip to meet with American farmers, a sector which has suffered greatly from the fallout of the tensions.

In a press conference later, the President inevitably espoused his usual talking points on why the trade war is so great for America. He claimed that he doesn't need a deal "before the election" and that China has "lost three million jobs," "their supply chain is crashing" and that "we're taking in billions of dollars" ruling out a so-called "interim deal" that has been proposed over the last few weeks. He then proceeded to liken the trade deficit between the two countries to the growth of China as a "threat to the world." Despite this, talks are set to continue in October.

To discern what will happen next is difficult, the stakes remain high with great differences between the two parties, but these days China sees weakness rather than strength. On the one hand, the President is showing increasing signs of strain as the trade war places limitations on U.S. companies and poses risks to the economy. 

Although outwardly he seems adamant to stick to his guns in pursuing a "maximum deal" against Beijing and give as few concessions as possible, one may note how he is trying to ease the pressure on himself in a number of areas. Sensing this, China is continuing to negotiate firmly and tactfully, and the latest U.S. agriculture move is a signal that if Trump truly wants something, he'll have to give some more ground.

Donald Trump is a tactful adherent of psychological warfare. Anyone who observes his negotiating strategy objectively will note that the President plays a very shrewd game, that is to act erratically in placing as much pressure and stress on his opponents as possible while maintaining an outward pose of total disregard for his actions. 

To do so, he purposefully tears up existing norms and conventions of behavior and is happy to pursue actions which others find shocking or destructive, striking fear into those he is up against and thus obliging them to negotiate on terms which are completely favorable to him.

One may see this strategy applied in the trade war, to try and intimidate Beijing while exaggerating his success to his supporters. Trump repeatedly escalates the stakes with a total disinterest in the consequences and then to buffer his position, purposefully overstates the strength of the American position and denies that he needs a deal at all. This is the primary logic of his false take that the U.S. is taking in "billions of dollars" and that China is "collapsing." He hopes to make China obligate to one-sided U.S. terms while giving nothing.

But international politics is not business; it's not a zero-sum game between two people. Instead, it's a vast, interdependent and interconnected field with many voices. The fact that the administration has offered over 400 exemptions to tariffs shows just how out of touch Trump's rhetoric is with reality; it is hurting businesses and slowing down the economy. 

We see efforts by the President to try and ease this pressure. He persistently demands interest rates be lowered, and he is even rushing to try and wrap up other trade disputes he started in the bid to hedge against China. It doesn't look great.

Beijing sees this and has gained a comprehension of Trump's tactics. As a result, it holds firm. China has used American agriculture, an area which the trade war is hurting, as a repeated incentive to kick start talks, all without surrendering their leverage. The latest proposal to visit American farmers, and then to cancel that meeting and go home early, is an example of such a tactic. It is dangling a carrot for Washington, but of course not giving them that carrot until more is offered in exchange.

In this case, it remains implausible that China will capitulate to one-sided American terms for the sake of concluding the trade war, but will continue to push for more reciprocal negotiations to reach a fair conclusion with the President. He shows some clear signs of weakness, and China has been shrewd in seeing the wider game beyond his seemingly unnerved rhetoric. This is ultimately a game of "who blinks first," and in turn, we should anticipate negotiations to drag on a lot longer.

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