Editor's note: Huang Jiyuan is an opinion editor with CGTN Digital. This article is based on his interview with Michele Bruni, team leader of the EU-China Social Protection Reform Project. The article does not necessarily reflect the views of CGTN.

The Chinese population is growing old. Technology and immigration might be the key to keep the country vigorous.

An aging society is defined as one where those over 60 make up more than 10 percent of the country's population or those over 65 more than 7 percent. In 2017, the number of over 60-year-old in China hit 241 million, accounting for 17.3 percent of its total population. 

Today, the country is facing one of its largest waves of retirement. In the span of several years, it will lose a substantial amount of young labor force fueling the country's miraculous economic growth. By 2050, it is predicted that those of 60 years old and above will make up of 35 percent of China's population.

Michele Bruni, team leader of the EU-China Social Protection Reform Project, believes that the multitude of elderly is not necessarily the problem. "China is still a very young country, if you compare it to Japan, Italy, Germany," Bruni asserted. The problem with China is that the "(aging) process here is extremely fast, much faster than it has been in Europe."

The cause of the problem is the declining working-age population. Bruni observes that "(China's) supply of labor is declining in a way that has no precedent all over the world. Just in the next couple of years, working age population will decline by more than 30 million. And in the next 40 years, it'll decline by more than 200 million".

So how should this problem be addressed?

Bruni holds that the Chinese market is special, comparing to other aging societies. At the time when the society is aging, there is also a wave of innovation, which reduces the number of jobs required to sustain development. But, the unknown in this equation is whether the reduction itself is enough.

There are two difficulties in making an accurate prediction. "First, it is difficult to understand whether China can make it with the same labor force. Second is what kind of training and education will be needed," Bruni says. The training and education, according to Bruni, is even more complicated given that this wave of innovation – Artificial Intelligence and 5G for example – is something that still needs to be studied and understand. "Which jobs will be created, and how the surviving jobs will change" will be the main questions that need to be answered.

The labor force, Bruni insists, needs immigration to sustain. He believes that "China should use the Belt & Road Initiative, where many countries have excessive labor to train the labor force China would need". 

Europe and the U.S., in Bruni's eyes, is an example of immigration's effects: "We had some legislation and retiring age was postponed. But, the main answer was immigration. Europe has now (more than) 50 million migrants, and without them our system would not be sustained. And we'll need many more. The U.S. is the biggest example. There are now (more than) 45 million migrants in the U.S., 15 percent of the population. The U.S. doesn't need so many more migrants."

Looking back at the history of development, Bruni notes that "Tech change destroys jobs. But, at the same time, it needs a (different) human increase. This has happened ever since the Industrial Revolution, even Agricultural Revolution 2,000 years ago". The unique situation in China's market makes tech innovation and immigration the silver bullets to the aging society.

There are still many unknown in this three-way interaction. Be "realistic", Bruni suggests, should be the principle in navigating this developing problem.

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