Another 15 people were killed in Baghdad's Sadr City late Monday after overnight clashes with security forces spread beyond the city limits, pushing the death toll to 110 people following a week of unrest in Iraq.
The clashes resumed after a short pause during Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi's announcement of a 17-point plan aimed at cooling down hostilities between the demonstrators and the security forces.
The number of casualties this week has added to the government's trust deficit and to the frustrations over the struggles to nation-building, which has been jeopardized by rampant corruption and failure to deliver services or jobs. It also reveals the truth about the Iraqi government – after years hunting down terrorists, Baghdad finds itself at a loss, tackling domestic unrest.
Before the mass protests hit the global news cycle on October 1, there were smaller demonstrations happening throughout the country, mainly initiated by underemployed and unemployed university graduates demanding better jobs.
However, Mahdi's decision to use live ammunition and tear gas to disperse the protests in Baghdad, and to fire Lt. General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi – a popular national figure known for fighting ISIL – further ignited anger towards the government and motivated empathizers to join the demonstrations.
Unlike the epidemic demonstrations that took place in Iraq the previous summer, which were usually motivated by a demand for electricity and clean water, this outbreak of discontent derives from a whole bucket of socioeconomic issues. These include anger over poor governance and rampant corruption in state institutions, as well as resentment about the fiefdoms for political and paramilitary factions within the parliament.
The demonstrations are part of a spiral of violence wherein different groups have come together under the same banner to protest the government's failure to create an inclusive meritocracy that provides opportunities for marginalized groups.
There is also the ripple of an anti-Iran message. Some of the protesters believe that "the removal of Lt. General al-Saadi was done on the wish/expressed desire of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) which saw him as too close to the Americans," Randa Slim, director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues at the Middle East Institute and a non-resident fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, told CGTN.
Iran sees protests in neighboring Iraq as being driven by Tehran's foes, and motivated by a desire to drive a wedge between the two countries, which have become increasingly intertwined since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. /AFP Photo
The protests are not mobilized by the traditional political parties in Iraq, a fact that makes it very difficult for Mahdi and his government to effectively engage in dialogue, especially given he has no political base to rely on.
Yet no political leaders have called for his resignation. This is partly out of consideration of triggering "the beginning of a protracted popular movement aimed at bringing down the regime they are all invested in perpetuating it," said Slim. "And partly because they cannot agree on an alternative to Mahdi."
The roots beneath the system
During Slim's visit to Baghdad and Erbil two weeks ago, corruption and issues with the Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashd al-Shabi/ PMF) kept popping up during conversations with locals. The former is so widespread and institutionalized that "no one seems to have any idea of how to uproot it," she said. The latter risks creating "a mini-state inside the state."
The protests are against politics-as-usual. In the post-Saddam era, the Iraqi leader put a premium on ethnosectarian representation, leaving the state institutions a fractured entity of hundreds of registered political parties. These young protesters are basically saying the "nation-building" experiment in Iraq since 2003 has failed them.
Wealth remains concentrated within the government, which has struggled to provide the rest of the population with services, infrastructure, or jobs. According to the Iraq 2019 budget, more than 50 percent of the funds will be allocated to public wages and pensions, eating away at the non-oil investment spending needed to develop a private sector.
Even with one of the most bloated public sectors in the world, the number of government jobs is limited. More than 60 percent of Iraqis are under 24, and many of them can't land a job even after graduation with a university diploma.
Iraqi police deployed in Baghdad's Sadr City, October 7. /AFP Photo
These demonstrations in Iraq are part of a protest wave gripping the Middle East. Protests have sprung up elsewhere calling for better governance, jobs, and greater political participation. They are mostly led by young men and women, many of whom are university graduates, demanding socioeconomic reforms.
The current domestic unrest could make it more difficult for Baghdad to do the hard work of socioeconomic reforms in warding off regional flare-ups that could draw Iraq into the worst-case scenario: Another civil war.
If the demonstrations follow the pattern of recent years, it is likely the current protests will wax and wane but not be quashed, unless the economic conditions and governance change drastically in Iraq and authorities can convey the message loud and clear: "We hear you."