Turkey launched on October 9 the Operation Peace Spring into northern Syria. The goal was two-fold: to clear the border area of YPG militants, that Ankara considers terrorists, and to establish a safe zone. 

Turkey had been preparing for this offensive for over a year. Negotiations between Ankara and Washington over a proposed safe zone in northern Syria went on for months. Then, during a phone call between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump on October 6, the U.S. president told his Turkish counterpart that he would withdraw American troops from the region. That was perceived internationally as a "green light" for Turkey's offensive. Trump later denied having done so for Turkey and stressed that the U.S. had been against the offensive all along.

As soon as the offensive started, fierce fighting began. Turkey focused attacks on Syrian border towns, such as Raslayn and Tel Abyad, and the YPG responded with mortar and rocket fire on Turkish border towns. Both sides suffered losses as dozens of fighters were killed in fighting. The offensive also displaced over 160,000 Syrians, according to the United Nations. Kurdish officials claim the number is closer to 300,000. A major impact on a region already suffering the consequences of an ever-lingering conflict.

It's also important to understand that Turkey has been one of the countries most affected by the spillover of the Syrian war. The country is currently hosting over three and a half million Syrian refugees. Istanbul has the largest number of Syrians, more than one million, followed by such border cities such as Gaziantep, Hatay, and Sanliurfa. Over the last year or so, in some cities, Turkish citizens become less tolerant of Syrian refugees. This is partly due to the weakening of the Turkish economy and Turks feeling the impact.

Turkish officials are hoping some Syrians will be willing to go back to Syria, especially if the proposed safe zone is established. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has announced plans to build dozens of new villages and towns within the proposed safe zone. Erdogan says about two million refugees could be settled there. But the proposed construction project is expected to cost about 27 billion U.S. dollars.

The Turkish President also claims Turkey has already spent over 40 billion U.S. dollars to support refugees in Turkey, so it is unlikely that it would be able to finance the project itself. Instead, Ankara hopes an international fund can be established to sponsor the construction of the safe zone project.

Meanwhile, within Syria, the Turkey offensive has brought about some changes. The Syrian army, with the consent of the YPG has moved into towns like Manbij and Kobane, once under the protection of the U.S. troops. It means Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is back in control of the area for the first time since 2012.

This development, coupled with Erdogan's safe-zone plan, is worrying analysts. 

"The people who are opponents of Assad and a lot of the refugees have connections through the families with some of the groups which have been fighting against Assad, they're going to be very reluctant to go back to Syria and rightly so and for fear that the regime will start detaining them, imprisoning them, torturing them, and executing them," Gareth Jenkins, a political analyst based in Istanbul says.

So, there is certainly a lot at stake for Syrian refugees in Turkey when considering returning to Syria. Nevertheless, some refugees are willing to give the safe zone a try, despite the dangers. 

One refugee in Turkey's Akcakale border town says he and his family are wanted by the Syrian government, stating that they "can't go to die there." However, he adds that the safe zone would be an option if they felt the area is secure. Others are saying that, for them, to consider moving to the safe zone, the construction of schools, hospitals, and housing would all need to be completed. 

In the meantime, thousands of refugees who have settled in Turkey, have opened businesses and have adapted to their new lives. One such Syrian refugee who first went to Lebanon and then came to Turkey says he has opened a falafel restaurant and lives peacefully in Turkey, therefore is very content with staying in Sanliurfa. For him, unless much better conditions are expected, staying in Turkey is the better option. 

Nevertheless, most Syrians tend to say they would like to eventually return to their home country. Clearly, a lot of time and investment is needed for the construction of the proposed safe zone. However, if safety and infrastructure are established, it appears some Syrian refugees may be willing to move there voluntarily.