Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that the joint Turkish-Russian patrol in northeast Syria will begin on Friday, which will be conducted in line with the agreement reached between Ankara and Moscow on October 22 in Sochi.

Clashes continue to spark after the deal was hammered down. On Tuesday, at least six Syrian government soldiers were reportedly wounded and a dozen taken captive in clashes in the "safe zone" carved out along the Turkey-Syria border.

But this agreement manages to hold the reins of the escalation of the tension in this region for the past two weeks, and is also believed to set the basic tone of the civil and international conflict on Syrian soil.

Putin has expressed satisfaction at the outcome, describing it as "very important, if not momentous." Erdogan is very happy as well, saying that the agreement helps stop "the creation of any separatist manifestations."

Both sides have certain concessions to make in order to reach the agreement. In general, Russia recognizes the rationale behind Operation Peace Spring and agrees to the establishment of a safe zone on the Turkey-Syria border, which amounts to 20 percent of Erdogan's original proposal. 

And Moscow, again, played the most important mediator in the regional conflicts, turning the Kurds to Damascus, and forcing Ankara to consider normalization with Damascus.

"With the negotiation process unfolding between Ankara, Damascus as well as the Kurds, countries like Israel, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are watching… Let's not forget, with the military strikes from the U.S. and Europe in 2015, support from Putin is the only reason that the Assad government can still hold onto power," Li Guofu, a senior research fellow and Director of the Center for Middle East Studies, China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), told CGTN.

While Moscow has garnered the reputation of kingmaker, in a reversal of policy, the Trump administration announced it would send some 500 U.S. troops to protect Syria's oil fields from future attacks by ISIL. But Damascus and Moscow quickly denounced the move as a violation of international law since the oil fields are in Syrian territory.

Redemption for Erdogan's domestic debacle

The international community found Ankara irrational in launching offensive operations under the threat of economic sanctions from the U.S. and EU. Besides the long-standing grudge between Erdogan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party, most believe the shift in domestic or even personal political landscape plays a big part in the operation.

Earlier this year, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost representation in eight out of the 10 cities whose voters had generally favored the party. The most prominent defeat is in Istanbul, the most populous city in Turkey, which hosts the highest number of Syrians at approximately 538,000 people.

"It goes without saying that there is an obvious economic and social burden cast on the locals because of the Syrian refugees. But until this point, it has officially evolved into a political crisis for Erdogan, not only costing him the constituencies, but also possibly the endorsement from his party," Li Guofu told CGTN, "and this is way beyond his tolerance."

"If we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey," President Erdogan said when opining over the political fortunes of his party, years before when cheers rang through the streets of the central Beyoglu district, as Binali Yildirim, the candidate of the AKP, conceded defeat in a televised speech, ending his party's long dominance.

Compared with last year's Olive Branch Operation, Peace Spring Operation is much larger and longer in scale. In addition to driving the Kurdish armed forces out from the border area, the operation also aims to resettle the 3.6 million Syrian refugees who have fled the war.

Where is the money?

Meanwhile, the resettlement of Syrian refugees can serve as Erdogan's leverage in Turkey's domestic policy in the foreseeable future.

Earlier this month, Erdogan revealed his ambitious resettlement project to the public, to "resettle 1 million people into 140 villages with 5,000 inhabitants and 50 districts of 30,000 inhabitants." This plan is said to be able to house 2 million refugees with a total of more than 5 billion U.S. dollars in planning. If implemented, it would be able to host most of Syria's refugees in Turkey. 

The Turkish Minister of Justice recently stated that 315,000 people have left for Syria on a voluntary basis. Questions aside about the "voluntary return," funding would be a major obstacle in implementing this multi-billion-dollar resettlement project.

Turkey has already held an international conference to raise funds. But because of its offensive operation against Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Ankara has been subjected to massive backlash from the international community, and European countries are reluctant to be Erdogan's ATM this time.

If the Turkish government wants to make money by selling lands and profiting from infrastructure projects, more practical problems will follow. And Iraq's recent domestic resentment towards the government's failure during the post-conflict reconstruction process is a vivid warning ahead.

There is an obvious irony in a deal to preserve Syria's territorial integrity negotiated by two external powers. But in general, Assad will welcome the Putin-Erdogan agreement for preventing a broader Turkish invasion, and set the dispute over Idlib aside, for now.

Trump's withdrawal may have changed the balance of power in Syria. It is possible that a combination of deft Russian diplomacy and exhaustion in other parties could lead to more pragmatic thinking in settling the regional disputes. As for whether such thinking will yield pragmatic policies for true peace, the answer is still up in the air.