Hope of being rescued while crossing the world's deadliest migratory corridor does not significantly impact migrants' decision-making process, said a recent study. The findings challenge the common claim that search and rescue missions encourage more migrants to make the dangerous journey from Libya to Europe.

Starting in 2014 and spanning the height of the Syrian refugee crisis, the world's deadliest migratory route remains the Central Mediterranean corridor. Migrants set out from northern Africa with hopes of disembarking in Italy – if they survive the journey.

Analyzing movement on this corridor, the study sought to examine whether the number of search and rescue activities influenced the number of migrant crossings. Researchers reviewed data from the beginning of 2014 through October 2019, with a particular focus on January to October 30 this year, when coast guard and navy activity had ceased, leaving only NGO search and rescue missions at sea.

The study was conducted by two Italian researchers, Eugenio Cusumano and Matteo Villa, from the European University Institute with figures from the International Organization for Migration, the UN refugee agency UNHCR and the Italian coastguard.

Based on data from the first 10 months of 2019, the study found "no evidence to suggest that departures increased when NGO ships were at sea". It also found that there was not an increase in departures in the 85 days when NGOs were conducting search and rescue missions, compared to the 225 days when Libyan patrol boats were at sea, which were aimed at intercepting migrants and returning them to Libya.

Additionally data from 2014 to 2019 shows that "NGOs SAR (search and rescue) activity seems only thinly correlated with monthly departures." The report highlighted 2015 in particular when the number of migrants rescued by NGOs increased to 13 percent from 0.8 percent in 2014, and the total number of departures from Libya decreased slightly. The claim that rescue missions encourage more migrants would have seen an increase in the total number of departures.

Instead, researchers found a strong correlation between weather conditions and the high level of political instability in Libya and migrant departures. 

The report could have implications on recent attempts to criminalize NGO rescue vessels. Last July Carola Rackete, captain of the rescue ship Sea-Watch 3, was arrested by Italian authorities after docking her ship with 40 rescued migrants, defying a ban to dock by then Interior Minister Matteo Salvini.