Year-end review: How global and Chinese economy fared in 2019
By Wu Zheyu and Global Business
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As the year 2019 wraps up, a broader picture of how the global and Chinese economy fared this year can be seen.

Though the official data has not been released, the latest forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed that the world economy is set to grow 2.9 percent this year and in 2020, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis over a decade ago.

Rising trade barriers and associated uncertainties weighed on business sentiment and activity globally. In some economies, the magnified cyclical and structural slowdown are already underway.

2019 saw rounds of trade negotiations going on between the U.S. and China, with tariffs rising and officials shuttling back and forth between Washington and Beijing. Then, the two countries agreed to a "phase one" deal right at the end of the year.

The U.S. economy suffered a lot from trade battles, as the Federal Reserve's beige book cited the challenges, including how American manufacturers have been suffering from higher prices and reduced market access, and how employers have been struggling with persistent worker shortages and tight labor market conditions across various skill levels and occupations.

Global economic growth is expected to fall in 2019 and 2020

Global economic growth is expected to fall in 2019 and 2020

Aaron Flaaen, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve's Industrial Output Section, and Justin Pierce, a principal economist with the Industrial Output Section, said in a note that "We find that U.S. manufacturing industries more exposed to tariff increases experience relative reductions in employment as a positive effect from import protection is offset by larger negative effects from rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs."

Global central banks' rate cuts dominated the capital markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate three times this year, as U.S. President Donald Trump put a lot of pressure on the central bank despite its independence from the White House. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its deposit facility rate by 10 basis points to -0.5 percent in September. The ECB also relaunched quantitative easing through bond purchases.

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan held rates steady and low throughout the year. In emerging markets, India, Russia, Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia and Mexico all cut rates at least three times in 2019; there were a total of more than 30 central banks around the world that cut rates in 2019.

These policies averted a deeper slowdown. Lower interest rates and supportive financial conditions reinforced still-resilient purchases of nondurable goods and services, encouraging job creation. Tight labor markets and gradually rising wages, in turn, supported consumer confidence and household spending.

Chinese authorities announced a number of new measures in 2019 aimed at advancing reforms and opening up the country's economy.

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China's core inflation stayed moderate in 2019 despite an uptick in pork prices. That left room for a number of monetary policy maneuvers by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The PBOC cut its reserve requirement ratio for all commercial banks by one percentage point in January. That was followed by another triple-R cut of half a percentage point in September. The central bank also made a few additional cuts for banks specifically serving small and micro businesses.

Instead of a blanket interest rate cut, the PBOC reformed the formation mechanism of its Loan Prime Rate — the lower limit of commercial banks' loan pricing. LPR will become the only benchmark rate for banks' new lending as of January 1. The move is considered a milestone in the 25-year process of China's market-oriented interest rate liberalization reform.

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Aside from monetary policies, the Ministry of Finance has also cut the tax burden for companies and individuals, which has saved companies almost 2 trillion yuan, or nearly 290 billion U.S. dollars. Manufacturing companies have been a major beneficiary.

Take value-added taxes (VAT) for example. In April, the VAT on manufacturing industries was cut from 16 percent to 13 percent. That alone reduced industry taxes by some 460 billion yuan between April and October. Wang Huayu, the Deputy Director from Fiscal Taxation Law Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said the three percentage points in the VAT ratio is saving costs for private firms and helping them further broaden their markets and further their research and development; benefits that will be substantial.

China unveiled the new Foreign Investment Law in March. The measure will replace three laws governing foreign investment starting on January 1, 2020. The new law provides details on protecting foreign investment, and pledges wider market access and equal treatment for them. It also banned using administrative licensing and penalties to force technology transfers.

To further open up the financial sector, China announced 19 measures this year to ease market accesses to sectors including banking, insurance, securities and credit rating. Meanwhile, a shorter negative list for foreign investment market access was released in November. Twenty items, or 13 percent of the total, have been cut from the list.

China also pushed ahead with free trade pilot zone reforms. The government approved a plan for six new pilot FTZs in November. The move brings the total number of FTZs in China to 18. Meanwhile, measures were unveiled to lower tariffs on over 850 products beginning next year. Tariffs on such goods including frozen pork, wood, and some high tech products will be cut. Zero tariffs will be imposed on alkaloid drugs and materials.

The Chinese central authority vowed to open more sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises to private companies. Those sectors include electricity, telecommunications, railway and oil and gas. The government will also further ease the tax burden and financing costs of private firms.