What is the key take away on monetary policy and exchange rate from the phase on trade deal? To summarize, there is a big no and a big yes.
It says no to competitive devaluations. The deal prohibits both the U.S. and China from manipulation of exchange rates to devalue their respective currencies for competitive purposes. Instead, it says the two sides should achieve and maintain a market-based exchange rate regime, and strengthen underlying economic fundamentals. Analysts say that this is in line with China's efforts in moving towards market-based exchange practices.
And the big yes means yes to transparency. So what needs to be transparent?
First of all, monthly foreign exchange reserves data, and on top of that, the balance of payments for the sub-component of the financial accounts. Last but not least, data on quarterly exports and imports of goods and services. The trade deal has very specific timeframes on the disclosure of these financial data.
Some worry that the new deal would have a similar effect as the Plaza Accord that devastated Japan's economy decades ago. And the answer from most economists is no as the deal is signed based on the respect for each other's autonomy in monetary policy.
The RMB has been steadily depreciating against the U.S. dollar in the past year, especially after the U.S. tagged China as a currency manipulator last summer when relations between the two deteriorated sharply. The U.S. dropped China's designation as a currency manipulator two days before the signing of the deal, saying that "China has made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation, while promoting transparency and accountability." China responded by saying that China has never been a currency manipulator and that the U.S. conclusion is in line with reality.
Yuan began appreciating in recent months buoyed by the signing of the phase one trade deal. But economists say that the appreciation is only temporary and that the trend of depreciation has not been changed due to uncertainties in the global economy.