Iraq mulls larger NATO role as Trump looks for 'face-saving' troops pullout
By Abhishek G Bhaya
Asia;Iraq
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While the U.S.-led coalition, established in 2014, has up to 8,000 troops (a bulk of them American) in Iraq; the NATO mission in Baghdad was founded in 2018 and has close to 500 military personnel training local forces. /AP Photo
While the U.S.-led coalition, established in 2014, has up to 8,000 troops (a bulk of them American) in Iraq; the NATO mission in Baghdad was founded in 2018 and has close to 500 military personnel training local forces. /AP Photo
Iraq is considering a larger role for NATO while reducing its security dependence of the U.S.-led coalition amid reports that President Donald Trump is desperately looking for a "face-saving way" to pull out American troops from the war-torn Middle Eastern country.
Baghdad's plan to revamp the current security arrangement comes after the Iraqi parliament earlier this month voted to expel all foreign troops - including the 5,200 US soldiers – just days after the January 3 American drone strike on Baghdad that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and a top Iraqi commander.
Amid nationwide outrage over the assassination, Iraq had condemned the drone strike as a breach of its sovereignty and of the U.S.-led coalition's mandate, which focuses on fighting the Islamic State (ISIL) extremist group.
Concerned that an immediate U.S. withdrawal may undermine the country's security, Iraqi and Western officials are reportedly negotiating an alternative arrangement.
"We are talking to the coalition countries – France, the UK, Canada – about a range of scenarios," the AFP news agency quoted Abdelkarim Khalaf, spokesman for Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, as saying in a report. "The essential thing is that no combat troops are present and our airspace is no longer used," he added.
U.S. soldiers stand while bulldozers clear rubble and debris at Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar, Iraq, January 13, 2020. Ain al-Asad air base was struck by a barrage of Iranian missiles on January 8, in retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. /AP Photo
U.S. soldiers stand while bulldozers clear rubble and debris at Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar, Iraq, January 13, 2020. Ain al-Asad air base was struck by a barrage of Iranian missiles on January 8, in retaliation for the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. /AP Photo
The report claimed two Western officials, tasked by the Iraqi PM to "draft some options" on a path forward for the coalition, have already submitted these options directly to Abdul-Mahdi.
According to the AFP, the officials have offered three choices: a coalition not led by the U.S., an amended mandate with limits to coalition activities; or an expanded role for NATO's separate mission in Iraq.
Khalaf confirmed that a larger role for NATO was one of several options being discussed; while one of the Western officials told AFP that "the NATO option" has won initial nods of approval from the prime minister, the military and even anti-US elements of the powerful Hashed al-Shaabi military network.
"I expect it will end with some sort of compromise - a smaller presence under a different title," he said. "The Americans will still be able to fight IS and the Iraqis can claim they kicked [the U.S.] out."
The choices in front of the government are expected to be discussed at a meeting of Iraqi and NATO officials in the Jordanian capital Amman on Wednesday. This will be deliberated later next month by the defense ministers of the 29 North American and European countries that comprise the inter-government military alliance..
"But there is recognition among the Europeans that there needs to be U.S. buy-in to whatever happens next," the Western official told AFP.
'Trump's desperation'
Iraqi protesters gather at an anti-U.S. demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq, January 24, 2020. /AP Photo
Iraqi protesters gather at an anti-U.S. demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq, January 24, 2020. /AP Photo
Last Saturday, a former British diplomat told Iran's Press TV news network that Trump is keenly exploring a "face-saving exit-door" to withdraw his troops from Iraq amid the widespread anti-U.S. protests in the country.
Peter Ford, former UK ambassador to Syria and an expert on Middle East affairs, felt that a bigger role for NATO might just be the solution, slightly unacceptable but still tailor-made, to bail out the U.S. President from the murky situation of his own making.
"It's clear that a very significant majority of Iraqis are not happy at all, especially after the murder of [Iranian] General Soleimani, it was an insult to the honor of Iraq. I don't think the Americans realized what the repercussions would be in Iraq itself and now they'll be showed the exit door, I don't think they can go on resisting for much longer," Ford told Press TV.
"I think Trump is looking for a face-saving way out, this is why they are exploring the possibility of NATO taking over the role - although I think this would be unacceptable also - it shows how desperate the Americans are to find the exit door. Trump does have a political need not to be humiliated, not to have a Vietnam moment," he added.
Iraqi security forces are deployed in front of the U.S. embassy, in Baghdad, Iraq, January 1, 2020. /AP Photo
Iraqi security forces are deployed in front of the U.S. embassy, in Baghdad, Iraq, January 1, 2020. /AP Photo
Trump has said he wanted NATO to play a larger role in Iraq and the larger Middle East.
The U.S. State Department, following the Iraqi parliament resolution, had earlier declined the Abdul-Mahdi's request of sending an American delegation to Baghdad to discuss the troops withdrawal.
However last week, Trump's special envoy to the coalition, James Jeffery, suggested that Washington may have reconsidered its position.
"So there may be a shift between – at some point, hypothetically – between the number of forces under the NATO rubric and the number of forces under the coalition," he told the media on January 23.
While the U.S.-led coalition, established in 2014, has up to 8,000 troops (a bulk of them American) in Iraq; the NATO mission in Baghdad was founded in 2018 and has close to 500 military personnel training local forces. The NATO operations in Iraq, whose mandate is renewed every year, have also been on hold since the Soleimani assassination.
NATO has also insisted that any broader role in Iraq would only involve training and an official from the alliance told AFP there was "no discussion" of a combat role.