The resilience of China's economy cannot be underestimated amid the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) epidemic outbreak, though it posed direct harm to the service, manufacturing and trade sectors, according to a report released Saturday by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

The report noted that the potential impact of the 2019-nCoV epidemic can be different from all the previous epidemics and other incidents, and it is imprudent to judge the economic impact of the epidemic by historical experience as China's economy is in a transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development.

"Even in the short term, the epidemic has not caused a negative effect on all the sectors but has benefited industries such as electronic commerce and online games and entertainment," said the report.

The Chinese government boasts strong financial capacity in crisis management, with a total of 27.3 billion yuan (about 4 billion U.S. dollars) being provided by governments of all levels for epidemic control as of Jan. 29, the report said, noting that more policy measures will be adopted as the epidemic continues.

The report made a forecast that in the long run, as China has already been the second-largest economy, the epidemic cannot undermine its huge potential in consumption, urbanization, and such new economic fields as 5G and artificial intelligence.

"New measures are expected to be adopted to stimulate the economy for the next five years," the report said.

Negative effects could be temporary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is closely monitoring China's coronavirus outbreak, but it has not yet quantified the potential economic impact on China. It expected that much of these effects could be temporary and be reversed once the virus retreats.

Economists generally agree that the Chinese economy may hit a brake in the first quarter, as the coronavirus outbreak puts commerce, tourism and parts of industrial manufacturing on hold.

Wei Shangjin, a former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, projected that the impact in the first quarter of 2020 will be big, perhaps lowering growth by 1 percentage point on an annualized basis.

But it will be substantially offset by above-the-trend growth in the rest of the year if the epidemic can be contained soon, according to Wei. The impact on global GDP growth will be even smaller.

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