Flags of EU and the United Kingdom are seen outside the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain, on January 9, 2019. /Xinhua
Editor's note: Richard Fairchild is an associate professor at the University of Bath School of Management. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Following Brexit, The UK and the EU are set to start negotiations over their trading relationship at the start of March 2020. In my opinion, there will be many twists and turns ahead. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to get tough.
According to the Daily Express, Johnson is planning to "turn the screw" on the EU by giving the green light for trade negotiations with the U.S. to begin in the next few weeks. It is reported that Johnson is becoming increasingly frustrated with "time-wasters" at Brussels.
Johnson is currently drawing up his "red lines" in relation to the planned U.S.-UK negotiations. The Express reports that he is expected to oppose U.S. demands for American drug and health firms to have greater access to the British market. But it appears that Britain is ready to make some concessions over food and agricultural standards, particularly in relation to imports of U.S. chemically-treated chicken.
There is no mention at this stage of negotiating items that Britain is prepared to give away to the U.S. However, there have been fears in some quarters recently over U.S. demands for access to the British National Health Service system, and the possibility that it may veer towards a U.S.-style health system. In my opinion, we need to keep an eye on this worrying outcome.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (front) makes his first statement in the House of Commons in London, Britain, July 25, 2019. /Xinhua
What is Mr Johnson's game plan here? Well, in threatening to turn attention to the U.S., it is hoped that this will focus EU minds, and stop their "time-wasting."
The British Prime Minister will set out his demands in detail for a trade deal with EU this Thursday. In a further twist, the Daily Express reports that Mr Johnson has ordered his Brexit team, Taskforce Europe, to find ways to remove the Northern Ireland Protocol from the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement.
The border between Northern and Southern Ireland had become a thorny issue in the Brexit negotiations throughout 2019, and the solution had been the Northern Ireland protocol, the "border in the sea" between Ireland and Britain.
The Withdrawal Agreement was the "contract" that was signed between EU and UK to enable Brexit to go ahead on January 31, 2020, and included the Northern Ireland protocol. The attorney-general's legal advise is required to remove the Northern Ireland protocol from the Withdrawal Agreement.
In a demonstration of his ruthless strength, Prime Minister Johnson replaced the current incumbent in the post, Geoffrey Cox, with a new attorney general Suella Braverman in a cabinet re-shuffle. It is thought that Mr Johnson made this change as Geoffrey Cox was not prepared to remove the Northern Ireland protocol from the Withdrawal Agreement.
I am with Geoffrey Cox on this. In my opinion, it is dangerous to now be re-negotiating items on the withdrawal agreement. Firstly, if this protocol was a key solution to the problem of Northern Ireland, which had held up Brexit for so long, how it can it now be simply deleted from the agreement? Secondly, if this can be changed in the Withdrawal agreement, what else can be simply negotiated away?
On the other side of the bargaining table, the EU has responded to Johnson's posturing with a show of strength of their own. They have just laid out their bargaining position (Daily Express, Monday January 24, 2020, 5.10 p.m.). The 27 EU leaders have signed off on Michel Barnier's bargaining guidelines, ordering him to keep Britain tied to corresponding high standards in step with EU rules.
With France the driving force here, the bloc have toughened their mandate for a free-trade agreement, insisting that Britain adheres to the highest EU-standards (the "level playing field") on factors such as workers' rights, the environment, state aid, taxation, and other rules and regulations.
Furthermore, the EU has reacted with anger at the UK's plan to remove the Northern Irish protocol. Brussels has warned Prime Minister Johnson that the protocol was part of the initial Withdrawal Agreement, saying: "Respecting our legal obligations is very important for establishing future trust.... (during our future negotiations)... The withdrawal agreement has been agreed and ratified... it must be implemented."
It is interesting that France appears to be the driving force on the EU side of the negotiations. Boris Johnson has been using the December 31 agreement deadline to threaten to walk away and revert to WTO rules if he does not get the free trade agreement that he so keenly seeks.
However, France's EU Affairs Minister, Amelie de Montchalin, has stated that France will not respond to this blackmail. Her country would not sacrifice the future of French industry and French fisheries, just to get a quick deal. De Montchalin tweeted: "we will not sign a bad agreement for the French under he pressure of blackmail or time pressure."
It is clear that, since Britain officially exited the EU on January 31 2020, relationships between Britain and the EU have naturally become more distant and strained. As EU-UK bargaining drifts away from a friendly basis to a more combative and aggressive stance. It will be interesting to see how the negotiations unfold.
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