Economic impact of coronavirus is 'short-term,' say top think tank experts
Updated 09:05, 29-Feb-2020
CGTN
04:06

China's gross domestic product totaled 99.1 trillion yuan in 2019, up 6.1 percent year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics' release Friday.

That growth momentum is jeopardized by the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

But, experts say growth disruption is "regional" and "short-term," even as they also anticipate a sluggish first quarter.

"We have seen all kinds of predictions for the first quarter, from zero growth to 1.5 percent, to the the most optimistic gauge, which is just four percent for quarter one," Zhang Yansheng, senior researcher with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges said at a press conference Friday.

He added that based on the current situation, things are not dire. "Here is how I see it, if the outbreak is contained and the nation gradually goes back to work, it will be better than 1.5 percent. And remember, we always have a low first quarter because of the Chinese New Year lull."

Zhang said that while much economic activity has been put on pause for the past month, this isn't quite the case now. He said that major projects and factories have reopened in the last week, also citing local campaigns to shuttle the workforce en-masse to places where there is shortage of workers.

The trade sector has felt the most acute pains in the past two months, but experts also see the sector experiencing the biggest rebound.

Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of commerce, said, "This is a serious test for trade, but I predict we will ride it out well."

He anticipated double-digit growth for Chinese imports by the end of 2020.

"The first quarter numbers will dip, but I think starting from the second quarter, trade will pick up. I predict double-digit growth for Chinese imports, considering our pent-up demand and need to grow," Wei said.

"After the outbreak, I think total trade volume will increase by 2, even 3 percent," he added.

Zhang, with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, also said that small and medium-sized businesses will rebound if proper measures and facilitation are given in time.

"As of right now, SMEs are tackling problems with logistics and distribution channels. SMEs need to find enough workforce and get enough funding. We are seeing all kinds of government policies from cutting taxes to financing these days, all to ascertain a good business environment," he said.