Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policies, and writes for multiple web-magazines.

In spite of the tense situation in Syria's Idlib province, where the Russia-backed Syrian Arab Army is fighting Turkey-backed rebels, Moscow and Ankara continue their economic cooperation. 

Russia's Rosatom is building a nuclear power plant in southern Turkey at a cost of over 20 billion U.S. dollars, and Russian energy giant Gazprom has already launched the TurkStream pipeline which supplies Turkey with natural gas from Russia.

At the same time, according to the New York Times, the two countries are apparently on the edge of a full-scale war. After at least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria's Idlib province in an aerial attack by Syrian government forces on Thursday, Turkey has sent thousands of troops and heavy military equipment into northwest Syria to back rebels against Syrian army and Russian soldiers.

It is worth mentioning that Russian and Turkish troops in Syria keep conducting joint patrols in the north of the country, and Russian navy ships reportedly passed through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits just hours after the attack. The very fact that the NATO member Turkey, which effectively controls the straits, has not blocked Russian ships to this day is a clear sign that the two countries have certain deals and will keep cooperating in spite of harsh rhetoric and occasional incidents. 

Originally, Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war was prompted by a desire to use the Free Syrian Army, as well as various Islamist groups, to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, the intervention of Russia and Iran made that objective untenable. In the coming days, or even hours, Turkey may start a ground operation in Syria, but it is unlikely that such an action would lead to the overthrow of the Syrian leader, as that would seriously affect Turkey's relations with Russia. 

It is possible, however, that Turkey will conduct a limited military operation aiming to retake rebels' positions that were recently captured by the Syrian Arab Army, as well as to reestablish control over the Turkish observation posts that are currently surrounded by Syrian forces. Turkish incursion would also be a method of pressure on Russia. 

However, it is very unlikely that any potential Turkish actions will lead to an armed confrontation with Russia. Even though it is still not quite clear if the aerial attack on Turkish convoy was conducted by Syrian or Russian air forces, Ankara carefully avoided openly blaming the Kremlin. 

Instead, it accused "the Assad regime and its backers," but repeated that it would keep negotiating with Russia over the situation in Idlib. Earlier this week there was speculation that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, as well as leaders of Germany and France, would meet on March 5 and discuss developments in Syria, but Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "Putin has other working plans for March." 

Sooner or later, however, Turkish and Russian officials will meet and possibly reach an agreement over Idlib, but since their previous deal made in Sochi in 2018 was never fully implemented on the ground, it is not very probable that a conflict de-escalation will take place any time soon.

In order to resolve the Syrian conflict, Turkey will have to keep cooperating not only with Russia, but with the United States as well. Since 2017, leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey held numerous summits on Syria, but in spite of that, the war goes on.

It is unlikely that Russia and Turkey will be able to ensure permanent peace in Syria, unless the United States, as the main player, is involved in the peace process. 

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