China's first quarter GDP growth could look shaky, as indicated by the record low PMI readings for February. The private Caixin survey, which tracks mostly smaller and export-oriented firms, shows the manufacturing purchasing managers index hit a 16-year low due to record drops in new orders, output and jobs.

The result came in at 40.3, down from 51.1 in January, and even weaker than the 40.9 in November 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis. Anything below 50 means contraction.

The official survey, which tracks bigger firms, had even worse results. The China-U.S. trade war has kept the official factory PMI in contraction for most of 2019 before a late-year rebound. Now, it has nosedived to 35.7, below the former record low of 38.8 during the financial crisis.

Similarly, factory production and new orders both collapsed in the official survey. The service industry indicator, the non-manufacturing PMI, dropped to 29.6 from 54.1 in January, the lowest since November 2011.

Overall, companies are not buying materials for production, thanks to the coronavirus outbreak that has caused nationwide transport curbs and required tough public health measures that have put economic activities at a standstill. Official data showed that only a third of China's small- and medium-sized companies have resumed production. Those who have gone back to work are reportedly running below normal capacity.

Bear in mind, these small and mid-sized firms create more than 80 percent of jobs and over 60 percent of GDP for China. Overall, analysts estimate that China's economy is running at only a fifth of its usual capacity.

The stock market is in panic, as many global brands have major factories in China. Some are dumping shares of Apple and Tesla, trimming their positions in energy stocks as crude prices plummeted and selling their shares in airlines. Many nervous investors are snapping up safe-haven bonds. Yields on the U.S. 10-year treasury note hit an all-time low on Friday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

But economists I've spoken to say they will wait until March to have a clearer diagnosis of China's economy, without the distortion of the Chinese new year. There's some positivity here as the Caixin PMI suggests manufacturers widely expect production to rebound once the epidemic controls are lifted. The sub-index for future output expectations, which measures how optimistic factories are about their production over the next 12 months, rose to a five-year high in February.