Editor's note: Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Former Vice President Joe Biden surprised many observers with his robust political comeback following the Super Tuesday Democrat primaries, during which the largest number of states took to the polls to decide that party's eventual nominee. Close to one-third of all the delegates that will go to the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this July were up for grabs, and Biden won more of them than anyone else, even taking the state of Texas that his party believes might prove pivotal during the November general elections.
Up until this point, self-professed democratic socialist Bernie Sanders was the Democrats' front runner, but two of the centrist candidates in his party suddenly dropped out over the weekend and endorsed his rival Biden. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar's endorsements of the former Vice President symbolized the coalescence of the Democrats' traditional base around Biden in what some pundits believe was a carefully coordinated attempt to rally them against Sanders, who is increasingly regarded as too risky of a bet against Trump.
The problem, however, is that the party itself is sharply divided, mostly along ideological and generational lines. Its younger supporters are drawn to Sanders' socialist policies whereas its so-called "old guard" prefer Biden's comparatively more moderate ones. There's also the lingering resentment among Sanders' base from the 2016 primary, which they largely regarded as rigged by Hillary Clinton and her party allies in order to steal the nomination from the Vermont senator. Eerily, some of them believe that history is now repeating itself.
Amidst the heated rivalry between Biden's centrists and Sanders' socialists is the fact that multi-billionaire Mike Bloomberg failed to make a noticeable impact on the race despite spending approximately half a billion dollars, only to end up winning the politically irrelevant contest in American Samoa. Commentators are now quipping that contrary to conventional wisdom, American elections can no longer simply be bought, at least not as easily as some previously thought that they could.
Bernie Sanders (L) and Joe Biden participate in a Democratic primary debate, Charleston, South Carolina, February 25, 2020. /AP
Bernie Sanders (L) and Joe Biden participate in a Democratic primary debate, Charleston, South Carolina, February 25, 2020. /AP
The sudden shift in political dynamics is worrisome for the Democrats. Bloomberg just dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden in order to help the centrists proverbially circle the wagons to stop Sanders, thereby risking the perception that the party's "old guard" is once again doing all that it can to stop the democratic socialist. Sanders' base is impressive, but there are fears that his supporters might stay home in November, vote for a third-party candidate, or even defect to Trump if their man doesn't get the nomination.
The combination of Biden's traditional political connections, his professional relationship to Hillary Clinton, and the prospect of multi-billionaire Bloomberg funding the party's anti-Sanders operations might be enough to make the socialist's supporters think that the Democrats are once again stealing the nomination from their candidate of choice, thus engendering any one of the three aforementioned scenarios during the general election. If the Democrats can't count on Sanders' base, then Trump might very well get re-elected.
The challenge ahead is for the party to avoid alienating Sanders' supporters, though that might not be possible given the Democrats' intense ideological and generational divides. Even in the event that Sanders graciously endorses the eventual nominee like he promised to do if he loses and did indeed end up doing last time around, his supporters might not be convinced, possibly speculating that he "sold out." This perception could in turn fuel even more political apathy and even resentment, further deepening the party's internal turmoil.
The worst-case scenario for them would be if neither Biden nor Sanders earns enough delegates to become the nominee before the party's national gathering in July, thus resulting in a brokered convention that would prompt speculation about the behind-the-scenes deal-making that would inevitably hand the nomination to one of the two, potentially Biden given his inside connections and institutional support. This would almost certainly case a rebellion among Sanders' supporters and ensure that even fewer vote for Biden in November.
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