Why Biden won and can Sanders make a comeback?
Azhar Azam

Editor's note: Azhar Azam works in a private organization as a market & business analyst and writes about geopolitical issues and regional conflicts. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Democratic Party's swamped contest for the U.S. presidential candidature, akin to the World Wrestling Entertainment crowded Royal Rumble event that aims to toss the rivals over the top rope, markedly became a two-man race on Super Tuesday after a renascent Joe Biden scored some stunning and terrific victories in Texas, Minnesota and Massachusetts and pulled off 10 out of the 14 states up for grab, capping the rival Bernie Sanders' dream run at the launching pad.

Vermont Senator Sanders dashed into the Election Day with sky-high expectations for the presidential nominee to be finalized at the Democratic convention in July as compared to Biden whose political history and hitherto dreary electoral campaign never appeared to transpire into a sort of a rampage on Super Tuesday.

Biden's belated turnaround, after running a dead campaign as recently as of last week, not only coaxed former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to drop out and drove him to support the veteran U.S. politician; his stunning show also intimidated Sanders' status as a Democratic frontrunner.

Late-deciding voters, the one consistent trend across the United States that traditionally led American voters to make up their minds in the last few days, were the key for Biden's remarkable win. By bagging at least 40 percent votes of late deciders in nine of the ten states analyzed, Biden recounted that time belonged to him.

While the bemused voters filled Biden's ballot box drastically to claim him wins in Minnesota, Tennessee, Maine, Massachusetts, Texas, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Virginia – his strong American African vote base additionally helped him to take control in Alabama, Arkansas and strengthen his position in some of other states.

The late change of minds struck Sanders spicily and he was able to protect only his home town Vermont out of 10 probed states along with Colorado, California and Utah from the electorates' madcap blitz. Biden nine, seven and one point wins in Minnesota, Massachusetts and Maine respectively dealt blows to Sanders' up to 80 percent favorability in the three primaries.

On Wednesday, Sanders claimed Biden was winning black votes  "by running his ties" with the former U.S. President Barrack Obama. Earlier he blasted his rival for pursuing "same old politics" and pledged to wage a war on the corporate and political establishments and sought to bring in "working class people" into his "unprecedented, grassroots, multi-generational (and) multiracial movement" to defeat Trump.

Though Sanders points at 60 billionaires for funding Biden's campaign, his remarks are grossly believed to be "racially clumsy at best and outright ignorant at worst" and insulting for the African Americans that have never been a part of the "elite" or "establishment" instead they have played a bigger role in capsizing the establishment in pursuit of their civil rights and quality.

Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a rally in Philadelphia May 18, 2019. /Xinhua

Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a rally in Philadelphia May 18, 2019. /Xinhua

Sanders' rhetoric toward black voters is stemmed from their overriding support for Biden that gave him a surprise victory on Super Tuesday. For many black voters, Biden is the grandest option and an impeccable candidate with the right experience who would appeal to the wider cross-section of Democrats and has got the ability to take on Donald Trump in a bare-knuckle political battle for the U.S.president.

Biden's dominant performance with black voters in South Carolina on February 29 reverberated in nearby North Carolina and Virginia on Super Tuesday and fueled his victories across the South where exit polls found that Biden won 62 percent of the black votes and another 33 percent of them in other states. Grabbing these votes was crucial since in each of the last five contested Democratic primaries – whoever grabbed black voters, has gone on to clinch the nomination.

As either of the two Democratic presidential candidates needs at least 1,991 pledged delegates to secure a nomination and to challenge the President Trump – it is not all over for Sanders yet and he is determined to make a strong comeback by producing an invincible spree like he earlier did in Nevada and in other states.

Sanders performed impressively in Colorado and would hope to cut Biden's lead in California where about 3.3 million ballots remain uncounted over state's absentee-voting program that allows people to cast ballots through mail. But since it might take weeks the authorities to announce final results, Sanders will have to wait and see if his biggest bet would allow him to catch Biden if not surpass him.

Nevertheless, harking back to 2016 Democratic presidential primary contest, Sanders had only succeeded to reduce Hillary Clinton's 13-point lead in California, the largest trove in the U.S. with 415 delegates, to seven points without any change in the topline after the final precinct total were declared. So, it would be something paranormal if he manages to square off Biden who is currently overall leads Sanders 627-551.

Much depends on how Sanders performs in Michigan, Washington and Missouri on March 10; in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona on March 17 and in Georgia on March 24. If Sanders yearns to roll out a sandy pitch for Biden in the post-Super Tuesday leg of race for an ultimate showdown with Trump on November 3, he would need to tone down his grandiloquence toward Democratic establishment that is coalescing behind Biden.

With the last female candidate and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren also pulled the plug on her campaign after being squeezed in between Biden and Sanders, the duel has effectively modeled into a two white-men rivalry. And if Sanders failed to do well in the next rounds, the 2020 Democratic Party's presidential and caucuses contest would be over beforehand.

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