A total of 96 million people could be infected with the novel coronavirus, with 4.8 million hospitalized and 480,000 deceased, said the New York-headquartered U.S. business site Business Insider citing a leaked slide by a national association.
The site said the American Hospital Association (AHA), a national health organization that represents all types of hospitals and healthcare networks, had a webinar as early as February, during which participants estimated "how much the virus might spread in the U.S."
One slide in a leaked presentation for U.S. hospitals. /CGTN screenshot via Business Insider
One slide in a leaked presentation for U.S. hospitals. /CGTN screenshot via Business Insider
James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, was reported to predict that U.S. hospitals would encounter an impact which is "10 times a severe flu season."
Other guesses in the slide gave their estimates including the community attack rate, demands for ICU care and ventilator support.
Business Insider said the slides just represent the participants' own views rather than that of the association, according to an email statement from a AHA spokeswoman.
CGTN has reached out to Prof. Lawler for his latest opinion on the outbreak.
"I think my projection is still as valid as any. I think the media has found it difficult to communicate some of the more dire-sounding projections it has heard, but it owes it to the people to report the facts – or as close to facts as we can get. This is what most disease modelers predict."
(CGTN's Gong Zhe also contributed to this story.)