As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) becomes a global pandemic, there are some geographical patterns of the outbreak areas that have been discussed.
"To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ... has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 degree (lines of latitude) corridor at consistently similar weather patterns," according to a team of U.S. and Iranian researchers of the Global Virus Network (GVN).
Their research suggests that latitude could influence the spread of the virus. The study was published on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) but it hasn't been peer-reviewed yet.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, people have been concerned that Southeast Asia may become another coronavirus epicenter due to its close distance and connections with China.
However, Italy, Iran, South Korea and Spain are the top four countries in terms of confirmed cases, with over 36,000 so far.
"The new epicenters of virus were all roughly along the 30-50 degree zone; to South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Northern Italy," according to the paper.
Studies from the Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou and Tsinghua University in Beijing all show that the spread of the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 disease was sensitive to high temperatures.
Some netizens believe this is why the epidemic wasn't out of control in Southeast Asia, where most countries have a hot and humid climate all year.
But this opinion still lacks scientific support. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch doesn't think weather changes will put a big dent in how the virus spreads.
Not enough is known about this new virus to predict how it will change with different weather conditions, added David Heymann of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
The study from GVN predicts that new community spread in the coming weeks could emerge in areas just north of the current corridor and it's important to have a well-prepared medical response.
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