It's too early to say whether the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) will be seasonal like influenza, Zhong Nanshan, China's leading expert on COVID-19, said during an interview on Saturday.
The disease differs a lot from influenza, said the expert. It is more contagious than flu but has a lower mortality than SARS and MERS.
The average reproductive rate (R0) of flu is close to 1.5, SARS 2-2.5 and novel coronavirus close to 3. The death rate caused by novel coronavirus, under good prevention and control, is around 1 percent based on current observation, while that for SARS was nearly 10 percent and MERS 30 percent.
"There's not enough evidence to indicate the disease can turn to a regular one now," said Zhong. It's not clear yet why COVID-19 occurs and whether it is related to the change of climate and external ecological conditions.
Promote local CDC's position
Promoting the position of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China is to buy time for the whole society.
CDCs now function more like technical departments. They should be endowed the executive power to "warn the public in an emergency," said Zhong, highlighting the importance of CDCs. "We did a forecast of the outbreak. The central government put Wuhan on lockdown on January 23. If a similar decision were made five days earlier, the number of confirmed cases nationwide would be about 20,000 so far. However, if the lockdown were made five days later, the tally would reach as many as 170,000 in March."
Therefore, early prevention and control are very important, and CDC is the one to do the analysis and prediction, and should be able to alert the community when urgent and necessary.
'Angels in white' always shine
"The vast majority of our medics have always been angels in white, and they have never failed the name," emphasized Zhong.
He called for trust and respect for medical staff.
"Through this outbreak, I hope the public can trust our medical staff. Most of the doctors in China are very responsible. They are a group of people who are really dedicated to the cause."