Anthony Edwards of the Georgia Bulldogs handles the ball in the game. /AP
The 2019-20 NBA regular season is still suspended because of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. and there is no clear schedule for resumption. However, that's not the only damage the new coronavirus will do to the league. In fact, this year's draft will be more unpredictable than ever.
Traditionally, teams attach more importance to young men's promise instead of their actual performance of the year when they attended the draft. That explains why players with better physical conditions – height, wingspan, hand size – and athleticism are more likely to be selected with better picks even if their skills are still unpolished.
By contrast, most of those who are performing better in college with actual stats already have their skills finalized and fixed. More importantly, many of them are already juniors or even seniors – their potentials are limited, especially compared with the teenagers.
LaMelo Ball (L) of the Illawarra Hawks tries to penetrate in the game agaisnt the Perth Wildcats at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, October 11, 2019. /VCG
However, things are different this year. Thanks to the virus, basketball is totally shut down in the whole world - even March Madness shows no sign of returning. Meanwhile, considering that there are more than 120,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S., it's next to impossible to either hold the draft combine or invite any player to do a physical for a team.
That leaves the current stats as the most reliable, if not the only, basis for teams to judge players.
"Teams put players in tiers or buckets at the start of the process. The tiers aren't going to change. How players usually move up – the interviews, the one-on-one time with the GM, the private workouts – that's gone," said an Eastern Conference executive.
James Wiseman of the Memphis Tigers reacts in the game against the Oregon Ducks at the Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon, November 12, 2019. /AP
Let's take Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman as examples. Edwards averaged 19.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 32 games. Ball dropped 17+7.4 +6.8 in 12 games before departing Australia. Wiseman had the best seemingly numbers – 19.7 points +10.7 rebounds + 3.0 blocks but he only appeared in three games.
Edwards does not beat Ball or Wiseman in physical talent and promise, but he has more clips for teams to study. The scouts will see both his merits and flaws but at least they can seem them. By contrast, how much reliable information can you get from three games?
"This is a unique draft in that way. They aren't home runs, but it's not clear that there are any. It comes down to what you're trying to do. Are you still trying to hit home runs or are you satisfied with a solid double?" said the Eastern Conference executive. "It's going back to the old days. You're guessing."
Giannis Antetokounmpo (L) of the Milwaukee Bucks and Nikola Jokic (R) of the Denver Nuggets pose for portraits on media day. /VCG
That will make things way more interesting. Everybody wants to select Zion Williamson, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid or Anthony Davis with a top 3 pick. However, what if you can draft CJ McCollum with the 10th pick? Or Giannis Antetokounmpo with the 15th pick? Or Rudy Gobert with the 27th pick? Or Nikola Jokic with the 41st pick? It has been years since surprises left the NBA Draft but they may return in 2020.