China
2020.03.31 15:09 GMT+8

Deadlier than H1N1, coronavirus strikes older people more

Updated 2020.03.31 22:08 GMT+8
Alok Gupta

VCG

Deaths caused by the novel coronavirus have a strong link with age, making it deadlier than the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.

While the COVID-19 death rate among patients above 80 years hovers at eight percent, in the age of below nine years, it's 0.0016 percent. For people in their 20s, the rate jumps to 0.031 percent.

Even the hospitalizations are majorly age-dependent, with nearly 19 percent of patients above 80 years being admitted to a hospital, according to the first comprehensive study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal on Monday.  

Around 12 and 17 percent of patients in their 60s and 70s, respectively, develop symptoms severe enough for hospitalization. Nearly nine percent of people in the age range of 50-59 years were rushed to hospitals.

"There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalization is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal," said Professor Azra Ghani from Imperial College London, UK.

The death rate from confirmed cases stands at 1.38 percent. But it declines by a little less than half to 0.66 percent when unconfirmed cases are also included in the tally.

The COVID-19 death rate might appear low, but when compared to the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, it's much more lethal. Between April 2009 and April 2010, more than 60.8 million cases of H1N1 were reported in the U.S., with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths.

The H1N1 had a death rate of only 0.02 percent, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. (CDC).  

The study analyzed 70,117 coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland and 689 similar cases of people who were evacuated from Wuhan, the epicenter of the pandemic.

As the coronavirus continues to spread, researchers warn that the virus may infect 50 to 80 percent of the global population overwhelming hospitals in the most advanced economies.

The findings can be replicated by other countries to prepare their health system to deal with a large number of coronavirus patients. "Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19," added Ghani.

"This study provides critical estimates on the proportion of people requiring hospitalization, which, when applied to the UK population, enabled us to get a handle on how many people might need to access NHS services," said Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London, UK.

"As the UK epidemic unfolds, more data are becoming available, and at the moment, the proportion of people in each age group most likely to require hospitalization, and most likely to die from infection, are consistent with the estimates in this study."

However, the death rate varies, depending on the availability of testing kits, ensuring social distancing and preparedness of the health systems.

In Italy — worst affected by the pandemic — the death rate is over 10 percent, and in Germany, it's below 0.9 percent. Globally, the virus has killed more than 37,640 as of March 31, Italy alone reported nearly 11,591 deaths.

Dr. Shigui Ruan, from the University of Miami, who was not involved in the study, pointed out that such differences are because of prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented.

"The case fatality ratio is substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care," said Ruan.

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