The coronavirus epidemic in the United Kingdom is showing signs of slowing and antibody tests could be ready in days, Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said on Monday.
"We think the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now," Ferguson told BBC radio.
Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, also said there were signs that locking down the country a week ago had slowed the rate of transmission of the virus. He said Britain was not in a "fast acceleration" phase.
As of Monday, 1,408 Britons who tested positive for the coronavirus have died and another 22,141 people have tested positive for COVID-19.
Britain initially took a modest approach to containing the spread of the disease compared with European countries such as Italy.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed stringent controls after projections showed a quarter of a million people could die. Johnson has also become the first leader of a major power to announce a positive test result for coronavirus.
Vallance on Monday said the restrictions, which have seen public transport use fall to less than a quarter of the normal levels, were already having a "big effect" on the transmission of the virus.
He said this, in turn, would lead to fewer people being admitted to the hospital and ultimately reduce the total fatality figure.
Hospital admissions had already stabilized at about 1,000 per day, he said.
"It's quite important, it tells you that actually this is a bit more stable than it has been," he said, adding that the country was tracking France rather than the worse-hit Italy and Spain.
He said it would take another two to three weeks to determine the extent of the slowdown relative to the spread of the virus because of the lag between the rate of transmission and that of hospital admissions.
Ferguson said a third or even 40 percent of people do not get any symptoms and thought perhaps two t to three percent of Britain's population had been infected.
But Ferguson cautioned that the data was not good enough to make firm extrapolations.
England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries on Sunday said restrictions on normal life may need to continue through the summer and into the autumn so that progress wouldn't be "wasted."
While lockdown rules can be relaxed when new confirmed cases begin to see a steady downward trend, strict social distancing guidelines will still likely remain, he added.
Britain entered a nationwide lockdown last week. It closed public venues including non-essential shops, playgrounds, libraries, gyms and places of worship, and banned public meetings of more than two people.
Antibody tests to be ready soon
In a move dubbed as "game changer" by the prime minister, the British government has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests designed to reveal whether people have been infected with the coronavirus.
The tests could be used to conduct coronavirus antibody tests at home. Once they are ready, frontline health workers would be prioritized for the tests, which would then be made available for the British public.
They are now in the final stage of validation and will be ready in a matter of days, Ferguson said.
"The new antibody test will be a massive leap forward in helping us respond to coronavirus," Welsh minister for health and social services Vaughan Gething said.
(With input from Reuters)
(Cover image: Contractors, members of 1 Royal Anglian Regiment and members of the Queen's Gurkha Engineer Regiment help to build the new NHS Nightingale Hospital to fight against the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in London, Britain, March 27, 2020. /Reuters)