Editor's note: Freddie Reidy is a freelance writer based in London. He studied history and history of art at the University of Kent, Canterbury, specializing in Russian history and international politics. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

COVID-19 has opened the door to a Democrat victory in the U.S. presidential election but will Joe Biden be able to walk through?

A little over a month ago it was hard to imagine that Donald Trump's re-election campaign was going to see much of a challenge. Presidential races are seldom walkovers but the situation was starting to resemble the Obama vs. Romney contest of 2012. Fast forward to the present and the proposition is starting to look a little different.

Crises present leaders with the opportunity to shine and galvanize support, or they can pose a serious headache to a leader's popularity which will dog them for their rest of their political lives.

George W. Bush's handling of the Hurricane Katrina disaster was widely condemned and severely weakened his popularity and effectiveness as a politician. In Japan, Naoto Kan was forced to resign as Prime Minister in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and ensuing nuclear disaster.

The reverse is a leader who appears unflappable, responding swiftly and in calm and measured manner. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has once again underlined her credentials in this regard and has seen her popularity and global standing rise once again.

Across the pond in Washington, it has not been so rosy. Donald Trump has made a series of missteps. Although he initially received a bump in popularity like many other leaders around the world, that rise in popularity has quickly evaporated.

The decline in popularity is good news for the Democrats and their chances in November. In the last couple of weeks, party grandees and former candidates have rallied behind Joe Biden and offered him a show of unity that was not extended to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The challenge to Democrats though, is how to cut through and get their message across. The candidate race failed to inspire and was very much a re-run of past campaigns. Joe Biden looked all but finished until a challenge by Michael Bloomberg kick-started his campaign, new voices in the contest failed to gain enough traction and Bernie Sanders ran the same campaign as before, suffering a heart attack in the process before announcing the suspension of his campaign after the race appeared unwinnable.

The challenge the incumbent president faces is not just in opinion polls, but in the unraveling of the U.S. economy which is where he has drawn the majority of his strength.

Up until now the economy had recovered well with strong job growth, decreasing unemployment and a booming stock market. Within the first three weeks of the coronavirus however, 17 million Americans filed for unemployment. The economic downturn is the most severe since the 2008 crash.

The challenge for the Democrats and Biden campaign though is how to capitalize on the president's mishandling of the crisis. Presently Joe Biden is holed up in his basement in Wilmington, sending campaign videos, unable to fund raise directly or press the flesh on the campaign trail.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is enjoying hours of free daily air time with his daily press briefings while Biden's statement on coronavirus measures and policy was not aired live by a single network.

President Trump continues an offensive which has seen him label COVID-19 as the "Wuhan Flu," has pulled funding for the WHO and has blamed structural health deficiencies on the inheritance of a poor system. Trump has also lashed out at reporters and their "fake news," accusing a CNN White House correspondent of "not having the brains he was born with."

Rhetoric may ease some of Trump's pressure in the short term, as it has done in previous years, but it further increases pressure on the economy to recover sufficiently for Trump to turn around and tell the press pack, "I told you so." If the economy fails to recover quickly, then the president will be substantially weakened.

Biden's campaign is slowly adjusting to the new reality. Facebook ad spending has doubled in recent weeks but still lags behind the Trump campaign's more established digital ground game. The fundraising initiative has also moved online with Biden's wife hosting an event for female Biden supporters, a virtual fireside with Biden and a celebrity fundraiser hosted by tennis legend and campaigner Billie Jean King.

Face-time is vital for fundraising efforts though and the new digital reality is doubtless going to negatively impact the candidate's coffers. Daily videos from his basement appears a rather pedestrian strategy. Reaching a younger, more engaged digital audience will be key to making inroads online and building momentum in the run up to November.  

The other major decision Biden must make soon is who to put on the ticket with him. A dynamic running mate who is dependable is more important than ever for the gaff-prone candidate. The right choice could add some real impetus to the campaign as Sarah Palin did for John McCain – for better or worse. A candidate with a lower profile such as Hillary's running mate, Tim Caine in 2016, would be a huge missed opportunity for Democratic chances.

Biden's odds have increased from 13/10 to 6/5. With Trump's dipping approval rating, a faltering economy and an ample source of political ammunition, there is hope for the Democrats in November. The Biden campaign cannot though, rely on mistakes made by the president. Biden must form a dynamic and passionate campaign which focuses on hope and change after coronavirus and after Donald Trump.

(Cover image: Former Vice President Joe Biden participates in a Democratic presidential primary debate at the CNN studios in Washington, March 15, 2020. /AP)

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