Great Hill Capital: U.S. economy may rebound quicker than expected
Updated 15:25, 03-May-2020
By Global Business
03:48

The U.S. economy may rebound faster than many are expecting given the government's massive stimulus being pumped in and the positive momentum prior to the coronavirus pandemic, according to investment firm Great Hill Capital.

Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of Great Hill Capital, told CGTN that China's current recovery is also an indicator for other economies worldwide, including the U.S.

"If you think about it, we're just about two months behind China. China had its peak on February 5 and we (the U.S.) had a peak about a week and a half ago," he cited.

"So it may surprise people to the upside, once we get through this valley in Q2 and Q3. Once demand comes back, all that stimulus is going to create a lot of velocity in the economy," said Hayes.

On Wednesday, data showed that the U.S. economy shrank, with its GDP in the first quarter reporting a negative growth of 4.8 percent that showed the steepest contraction since the last recession. Most economists do not expect an immediate rebound, with many predicting recovery only by the second half of the year.

Hayes said that the Q1 GDP numbers were "100 percent" due to the effects the COVID-19 has had on the economy. "If you look at that GDP report, you saw a 21-percent jump in residential fixed investment. That doesn't happen overnight. That was the momentum going into the first quarter, we've had full employment, we've had the best economy that we've had in our history, prior to COVID-19."

"So just as quickly as we dropped from COVID-19 like a natural disaster, we're going to rebound that much quickly towards the back half of the year for sure," he said.

Hayes explained that his optimism is supported by an estimated nine trillion U.S. dollars from the government in the forms of direct stimulus and lending facility, asset purchases, and a potential infrastructure deal.

"So the congressional budget office estimates that for the year, the GDP is going to be down 5.6 percent. So if we do round numbers on a 20-trillion-U.S.-dollar economy. Let's assume an economic contraction of 1.2 trillion," he said.

"All said and done, as much as this is a tragedy when you have nine trillion U.S. dollars in aid and liquidity chasing a 1.2-trillion in shortfall and contraction," said Hayes, adding that "once people get back to work and demand comes back into the economy like you're seeing in China, I think you could wind up with growth levels in the first half of next year that would never happen in the absence of all these stimuli."

The Federal Reserve (Fed) this week pledged to use "its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time" according to a statement after it left interest rates near zero. "He (Fed Chair Powell) said a keyword yesterday, which is 'unlimited'. So they will do whatever it takes to restore growth and restore employment," said Hayes, referring to lending facilities from the Fed.