Everyone will suffer if next season NBA salary cap drops by $30 mln

Photo by CGTN's Qu Bo

The front office of an NBA team estimated that, in the worst case, the 2020-21 season salary cap may drop by 25 to 30 million U.S. dollars, according to ESPN expert Bobby Marks.

That will be a financial disaster for both players and the teams, especially the latter.

This season's salary cap is about 109 million U.S. dollars and the luxury line is 132 million. Originally, the two numbers were expected to rise to 115 million and 139 million respectively next season.

A drop of 30 million means the new salary cap will be 79 million. Considering that players' salaries are connected to the salary cap, the starting payment of maximum contracts will be 19.7 million and 23.7 million.

Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans in the game against the Boston Celtics at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, January 26, 2020. /VCG

For example, Brandon Ingram, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Domantas are all from the 2016 drafting class. Simmons and Murray already signed maximum deals that will start paying both of them 29.2 million dollars next season. Meanwhile, Ingram can only receive at most 19.7 million. That number is basically the same as that of Sabonis.

That's why on this year's free agent market, it will be unlikely any long lead is signed. For players, especially big names, taking a one-year contract and waiting to see what happens in 2021 summer would be the best choice. However, that will still cost them at least one year of making big money.

Andrew Wiggins of the Golden State Warriors handles the ball in the game against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado, March 3, 2020. /VCG

Compared to players, teams will hate the drop even worse.

If the 30-million-U.S.-dollar drop happens, most teams won't even have any space to operate. Instead, there will be 25 teams having to pay the luxury tax, the most in league history. For example, the Golden State Warriors managed to avoid the super luxury tax (repeater tax) via a series of brain-scratching trades. However, if the salary cap and the luxury line both drop by 30 million U.S. dollars, the Warriors may be looking at 160 million U.S. dollars in tax in the summer of 2020.

In that case, the team can forget about Giannis Antetokounmpo. Just wait for the look on Joe Lacob's face when he receives the bills.

The league and the Players' Association need to negotiate and cut a deal, for the interest of everyone.