Will COVID-19 make the world a less peaceful place in the year ahead?
A global think tank, the Institute for Economics and Peace, raises that unhappy prospect in a special focus on the disease in its just-published annual Global Peace Index, which ranks countries according to safety and security, ongoing conflict and militarization.
The institute, which works on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace, notes that the pandemic has unleashed a new wave of tension and uncertainty around the world.
It says the devastating economic impact of COVID-19 will negatively affect political instability, international relations, conflict, civil rights and violence, undoing many years of socio-economic development.
Civil unrest has doubled since 2011, the report reckons, with 96 of the 163 nations surveyed recording at least one violent demonstration last year.
The number of riots globally over the nine years rose by 282 percent and general strikes by 821 percent by its count.
Europe, perhaps surprisingly to many, has been the setting of most of these protests – almost two-thirds of which were nonviolent – and more of the same is anticipated in the months ahead.
"Europe is expected to see an increase in political instability, including riots and general strikes, all of which have increased substantially in the past decade," the think tank says.
It fears that rich countries will reduce their foreign aid budgets adding further stress to fragile and conflict-affected countries, such as Liberia and Afghanistan, that are highly dependent on international aid.
Riot police officers in Lebanon remove anti-government protesters in Beirut, October 31, 2019. The pre-COVID-19 financial crisis led the country to default on its debt in March, a scenario that could be followed by other debt-laden nations hard hit by the pandemic. /VCG
"Without support, these fragile countries will struggle to recover, thereby creating the conditions for future increases in civil conflict," the report says.
International borrowing is also likely to become tighter, making life difficult for cash-strapped nations and leave them more vulnerable to increases in political instability.
In this case, look no further than Latin America where violent protests blamed on social inequality swept across the region in the fourth quarter of 2019.
The Global Peace Index 2020 says it was the region where peace deteriorated the most last year.
The cost of violence is huge. Its economic impact on the global economy in 2019 was put by the institute at 14.5 trillion U.S. dollars in purchasing power parity terms – equivalent to 10.6 percent of all economic activity or 1,909 dollars per person.
One factor also seen as having a detrimental impact on peacefulness is the increase in gun sales in the U.S. that has been seen during COVID-19.
And when it comes to international relations, the report cites the increased tensions between the U.S. and China that are contributing to global economic uncertainty.
"Responsiveness and adaptability" will determine which countries perform best during the crisis, the report concludes.
For the record, Europe remains the most peaceful region in the world, according to the index, while the Middle East and North Africa region is the least peaceful. Iceland is deemed the most peaceful country, a position it has held since 2008, and Afghanistan the least peaceful.
(Top photo: "Yellow vests" protesters demonstrate against higher fuel prices near Bordeaux, France, November 17, 2018. Europe had the largest number of protests, riots and strikes between 2011 and 2018, totaling nearly 1,600 events, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace.) /VCG