President Donald Trump holds his first mass campaign rally since March on Saturday in Tulsa, after a week in which confirmed COVID-19 cases rose, protests over racial injustice continued, revelations from John Bolton's book swirled and the Supreme Court twice ruled against the administration.

With a little over four months to go until the election, Trump will use the event to try to reset a campaign thrown off course. But there are significant potential risks. 

Though COVID-19 cases have surged in Oklahoma in recent days, attendees at the rally, which is expected to attract 19,000 people indoors and more at an outdoor stage, will not have to wear face coverings or keep socially distance and must sign a waiver saying they will not sue the campaign if they contract the virus.

Public health officials have warned a mass gathering at which people are likely to chanting and cheering could turn into a "super-spreader event." Ignoring experts' recommendations will come back to bite Trump if cases are linked to the rally in the weeks ahead.

There are also dangers over what happens outside the arena, with protests expected. The event will take place the day after the city marked Juneteenth, the holiday marking the end of slavery in the U.S., and demonstrations over racial injustice in the wake of George Floyd's killing are ongoing. The rally risks fanning tensions in the city and there are fears of civil unrest.

Here are five reasons the Trump campaign has calculated the risks are worth taking.

1. Trump is losing

Polls only offer a snapshot of opinion at a certain time, but now, with just under 150 days before the presidential election, Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden by around nine points on average nationally and, by lesser margins, in almost every swing state

Most observers expect the gap to narrow as November 3 approaches, but the former vice president is in a strong position and Trump is struggling to turn the tide. The FiveThirtyEight polling average tracker put Biden up by 8.9 points on Saturday, while recent individual polls have shown him ahead by 12 (Fox News), 13 (Reuters) and 14 (CNN).

The Trump campaign needs positive momentum after months of floundering and attributes the president's victory in 2016 in part to the rallies that turned him into a political star. The president wants to reset the campaign and re-energize his base, and history shows his rallies are an effective method.

However, while diehard supporters will likely be enthused, it's unclear how an event filled with red-meat rhetoric will appeal to the demographics – notably women and independents – that have moved away from him over the past four years.

2. Data and free media

Trump doesn't struggle to catch attention and the reelection effort has cash in the bank, but free media and data collection have been key to both his political campaigns. Trump received free media worth billions in 2016, and the rally will certainly win the weekend U.S. news cycle.

Email addresses, phone numbers and address details are the backbone of modern campaigns, for fundraising, getting out the vote and organizing – and the rallies are a treasure trove.

Trump 2020 claims to have received over one million requests for tickets for the Tulsa rally, and campaign manager Brad Parscale tweeted the event would be Trump's "the biggest data haul and rally sign-up of all time by 10x."

The digital operations of the president and the Republicans are thought to be far advanced of those of Biden and the Democrats, and rallies are an opportunity to help them grow even stronger. A successful event in Tulsa will open the door to many more rallies in the near future.

3. 'Great American Comeback'

Trump wants the rally to send a signal: The worst of the coronavirus crisis is over, the economy is on its way back and it's time to return to normality.

The White House is even calling the event a "Great American Comeback Celebration." The administration has struggled to maintain a consistent message, particularly since the pandemic began, and Trump needs a narrative to base the campaign on. He hopes the "comeback" message will begin to chime as the economy rebounds, and he will be given the credit.

It's a memorable slogan, but will mean little unless the situation really does improve. Confirmed COVID-19 cases rose in several states over the past week, over 119,000 Americans have died from the disease and while the most recent unemployment numbers were better than expected they were still dire by historical standards. 

4. Settle scores and find a foil

Trump rallies typically include a large dose of score-settling, and the president loves a foil to compare himself to. Rivals and critics, media organizations and other perceived enemies – even mail-in voting – are in the potential firing line.

Biden will no doubt come under attack. The low-profile campaign run by the Democrat has frustrated some in the party, but playing it safe has left him less exposed to the gaffes that have been a feature of his long political career. The president has mocked his rival – "Sleepy Joe," as he calls him – for staying at home in Delaware for much of the past three months but there has been few signs his attacks on the former vice president have resonated.

After a week in which extracts from an excoriating account of life in the Trump White House by John Bolton were published it seems inevitable that the former national security will also be a target.

The "fake news media" as well as social media companies – Twitter and Facebook have put warning notes on Trump's posts – are also likely to be hit, and the Supreme Court could also get a mention. Appointing conservatives to federal courts has been a standout success for Trump among his supporters, but the highest court in the U.S. still ruled against the Trump administration on LGBTQ rights and immigration this week. 

5. Personal energy

It's not just the base that gets energized by rallies, it's the president too. Axios reported that the president likes to watches replays of his rallies and commentates along the way. "Instead of looking for weaknesses in technique or for places to improve," Axios reported, "Trump luxuriates in the moments he believes are evidence of his brilliance."

After months of being away from supporters, Saturday's event is an opportunity for Trump to perform in front of an adoring crowd and receive a morale boost after three months in which little has gone right for him.