Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopters fly in formation during a Victory Day air parade rehearsal over Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2020. / Xinhua
Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopters fly in formation during a Victory Day air parade rehearsal over Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2020. / Xinhua
Editor's note: Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Russia and the other members of the Treaty on Open Skies held a videoconference on Monday to discuss this framework's future following America's announcement in late May that it plans to withdraw from the agreement.
The Treaty on Open Skies allows member states to conduct surveillance flights over one another's territories under certain controlled conditions in order to reduce the likelihood of a war by miscalculation.
The U.S.' withdrawal raised concern that the global security architecture will continue to collapse.
Global strategic stability was hitherto upheld by a series of security agreements between the U.S. and Russia which – as in the case of the Treaty on Open Skies – sometimes included American allies like the EU states and a few others.
That all changed after Trump declared his intention last summer to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on the basis that Russia was supposedly violating it. He's since used the same excuse in respect to Open Skies and his reluctance to renew the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) too.
Truth be told, Bush Jr. technically set the process in motion by withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 and setting off an unofficial arms race over missiles and missile defense systems. But it was Trump who took it to its extreme and seems hellbent on dismantling the old world order.
Russia is worried that America's moves imply ominous intentions, hence why it wants to do all that it can to restore the global security architecture to the best of its ability, ergo the video conference.
The White House is seen in Washington D.C., U.S., May 21, 2020. /Xinhua
The White House is seen in Washington D.C., U.S., May 21, 2020. /Xinhua
Monday's event postponed a decision on this pact's uncertain future after all sides agreed to hold an advisory meeting next week in Vienna followed by informal consultations.
After that, they're aiming to hold another conference in early October a little more than a month before the U.S.' pullout in late November.
Russian Deputy Foreign Sergei Ryabkov lamented that nothing of tangible significance was achieved during the last meeting because of the U.S.' insistence on continually accusing Russia of violating the agreement.
What's urgently needed to guarantee global stability is for the U.S. to reverse its decision on withdrawing from the treaty and then consider returning to the terms of the now-defunct INF.
Barring that best-case scenario, which seems increasingly less likely by the day, the next best thing that could happen is for Russia and the remaining members to agree to flights over one another's territories provided of course that the Western countries don't share the intelligence that they obtain with their American ally.
That, however, can't be guaranteed for the obvious reason that most of those states are NATO members and would probably find it difficult to keep anything secret from the U.S. even if they truly wanted to.
Nevertheless, it would be a reasonably sensible short-term solution if EU leaders Germany and France decided to retain this pact if only to provide Joe Biden with an opportunity to more easily re-enter it in the event that the wins the November election.
After all, Biden's possible victory would see the Democrats and their institutional allies in the permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies ("deep state") returning to power and likely doing all that they can to reverse as many of Trump's foreign policy decisions as soon as possible.
In the context of this analysis, it could see the U.S. return to multilateral and bilateral security pacts such as the Open Skies and the INF treaty alongside other such accords like the Paris Agreement on climate change.
For this reason, it would be wise for the remaining members to resist Trump's pressure to follow his lead in withdrawing from the Open Skies treaty or succumbing to American pressure to not retain it until at least after the November election.
If they can keep it alive until the end of the year, they might be able to revive the agreement if Biden wins and decides to rebuild the global security. It's worth a shot at least since it's still uncertain whether Trump will be re-elected.
(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)