India has recently moved to disengage from China economically after a border clash between the two sides in June.
On June 15, for the first time in 40 years, the border dispute between China and India turned deadly. India claims 20 of its soldiers died during the brush. A few weeks later, both sides agreed to de-escalate tensions. But India sent mixed messages – on July 3, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a surprise visit to the border region of Ladakh to boost military morale.
Disputes are also in the economic sphere. On June 29, the Indian government banned 59 Chinese mobile apps, including very popular ones such as TikTok and Camscanner. TikTok is one of the hottest apps in the world, with 120 million users in India alone.
One Indian user Sweety Singh said: "I would like to tell the government that some Indian applications should be launched through which people like us who used to make a living out of TikTok do not face problems."
Scrutiny over electronic imports from China has increased as well. Last year, more than a third of India's electronic imports came from China, with a total value of more than 33 billion U.S. dollars. Looking at trade data, decoupling from China may be easier said than done for India. India is not a manufacturing powerhouse, so in terms of bilateral trade, it actually buys much more from China than the other way around. Between April 2019 and March 2020, India imported over 65 billion U.S. dollars' worth of goods from China. The most imported products from China are electronics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
The pandemic has also crippled India's economy, which grew 4.2 percent last year – the slowest in a decade. Now that the coronavirus has hit, the International Monetary Fund predicts the Indian economy could contract by 4.5 percent this year, the steepest decline for any emerging economy.
So why would India intend to disengage with China now?
"It's driven by politics. Narendra Modi is facing pressure domestically. Since his second term began yet Indian economy is a mess. He has to find a way to shift the public attention elsewhere," said Cheng Xizhong, a visiting professor from Southwest University of Political Science and Law.
Pressure on the prime minister comes from multiple fronts, including his own supporters, businesses, and farmers union. But this time, the nationalistic voice is even louder.
Professor Cheng, also a former Chinese military diplomat in South Asia, said that since India started its opening-up in the 1990s, its economic growth has been crippled by lack of high-quality infrastructure. Therefore partnering with China, which is another emerging economy in the region with strong resources and technology, will be a wiser choice for India.
On that note, another economist from Delhi, Biswajit Dhar, shares similar views: India's decision to start producing domestically has to be strategic. "You can't take a decision, for instance, to produce everything."