Two students walk on the campus of the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, California, the United States, June 3, 2019. /Xinhua
The Trump administration has never been slow to support restrictive immigration policies – and has repeatedly been forced to back away from hasty decisions in the face of opposition.
International students are the latest target. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) issued new guidelines last week that would result in the denial or revocation of visas for those forced by the COVID-19 pandemic to take courses entirely online.
After a backlash from hundreds of universities and facing multiple lawsuits, the policy was rescinded on Tuesday.
However, the saga is far from over. The sudden reversal of a visa policy earlier revised for the pandemic left hundreds of thousands of international students puzzled and frustrated, and while the latest decision is a relief to many, the government could yet attempt to issue a new directive.
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The uncertainty produced by the policy changes risks jeopardizing the huge economic benefits international students – the Institute of International Education said there were 1.1 million in the country in the 2018-2019 academic year – bring to the United States.
Students study at a library of Columbia University in New York, the United States, December 7, 2019. /Xinhua
At a time in which the economy is in a slump and President Donald Trump has prioritized a rebound as his best chance of reelection in November, the doubt created could be particularly damaging. According to the Department of Commerce, international students contributed 44.7 billion dollars to the U.S. economy in 2018.
"Even though this is only 0.2 percent of the total GDP, the benefits could be significant for specific industries, especially higher education and the local businesses surrounding college campuses," said Sun Taiyi, a political science professor at Virginia's Christopher Newport University.
Sun argued that the logic of the now-reversed visa policy is similar to Trump's mindset on trade, aiming to rally support from voters, especially those in swing states.
"Just like the trade wars against other countries are typically net losses for the U.S. economy as a whole but could transfer wealth from the U.S. consumers to those who are protected by the new trade barriers – usually located in swing states and therefore giving Trump more electoral boost," he said.
American sentiment towards immigration has changed during the Trump presidency. In polling released this month, Gallup found that 34 percent of Americans now want more immigration and 77 percent think it is good for the country – both significant increases compared to 2016.
However, among the president's core support there remains deep skepticism. "The xenophobic portion of his (Trump's) base could get excited" by targeting international students, Sun added, while the students and their families typically don't have voting rights.
Signaling 'life is back to normal'
The ICE announcement came as the Trump administration stepped up pressure on schools and universities, many of which closed or switched to online learning amid the pandemic, to reopen.
The COVID-19 cases are surging in the U.S. and nearly 50 million Americans have lost their jobs since the pandemic began, but the White House is determined the country should return to pre-pandemic practices as soon as possible.
"The Trump administration was mainly using international students as a bargaining chip to target universities and their decision-makers," Sun contended, as pushing for schools to reopen with in-person teaching classes could give the public the impression that life is back to normal.
Protecting economy and jobs?
The reversal of a policy that put thousands of students at risk of deportation was a "significant victory," according to Harvard President Lawrence Bacow, but the original decision could still have serious long term consequences.
Sun said it could make incoming and current international students reconsider if they want to come to or stay in the U.S. as increasing uncertainties cloud the outlook for study and jobs.
A Chinese student consults about studying in the U.S. at the 2018 China Education Expo. /VCG
Ran Abramitzky, an economics professor at Stanford University who studies immigration impacts, warned that American universities' overall competitiveness will diminish if they attract fewer international students.
In an interview with the school news site last week, Abramitzky cautioned that restricting the numbers of overseas students meant the U.S. would miss out on creativity and "ultimately harm the country's economy."
He added that limitations on immigration would not boost domestic employment, one of the arguments made by the Trump administration.
"Overall, our research suggests that U.S. businesses are unlikely to react to immigration restrictions by hiring more American workers or increasing wages," Abramitzky said. "We are much more likely to see jobs being outsourced and workers being replaced with AI technology."