Editor's note: Dr. John Gong is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics and a research fellow at the Academy of China Open Economy Studies at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE). The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

An obscure paper by Elizabeth Brainerd and Mark Siegler in 2003 that was never published but buried in a sea of working papers on SSRN (formerly known as Social Science Research Network) has this to say about the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu:

"We find that the epidemic is positively correlated with subsequent economic growth in the United States, even after taking into account differences in population density, urbanization, levels of income per capita, climate, geography, the sectorial composition of output, human capital accumulation, and the legacy of slavery. Our results suggest that one more death per thousand resulted in an average annual increase in the rate of growth of real per capita income over the next ten years of at least 0.15 percent per year."

That a tragic natural disaster resulting in pain and suffering, and sadly death too, could be an economic blessing in subsequent years is probably as shocking as it is sinister to average folks, but unfortunately and fortunately, it is a cold-blooded historic fact.

The entire 1920s after the Spanish Flu witnessed one of the longest stretches of economic boom time in U.S. history. After a sharp decline during the pandemic, the nation's GDP bounced back with a vengeance followed by a decade of gradually tapering off time. The bouncing-back-with-a-vengeance part of this development trajectory is what the economists call the V-shaped recovery.

That is exactly the kind of pattern that I see in China's second quarter GDP figure. With the lockdowns in most parts of China in late January and entire February, the economy took a brutal beating.

China's GDP in the first quarter has declined by 6.8 percent. The National Bureau of Statistics of China finally released some good news for the second quarter, which is a positive 3.2 percent GDP growth figure. As most parts of the country gradually come back to normal starting in mid-March and April, without a doubt, the V-shaped recovery in China is indeed happening "with a vengeance".

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier projected that virtually all the major economies in the world will see negative growth this year, barring China, which it put at a meager 1 percent growth forecast. But with this 3.2 percent growth in the second quarter, which means that the overall GDP in the first half of the year saw a modest decline of 1.6 percent, the annual performance is very likely to dash the 1 percent forecast by the IMF. That would be an extraordinary achievement compared to the rest of the world.

Two questions still linger if my rosy scenario for the rest of the year would hold water. One is what if the virus comes back to haunt us again? After all, the Spanish Flu rampages the entire world in three waves over a period of 18 months, while we have gone through the COVID-19 pandemic for only seven months so far.

The recent experience of quickly containing a mini-outbreak in Beijing a few weeks ago testifies that China is able to deal with any resurgence quickly with resolute measures. The Beijing municipal government literally conducted more than 10 million screening tests over a couple of days, proudly including myself as the nucleic acid test was organized by my university. Besides, China's control measures at the airport and other border entry checkpoints have also been stringent and effective.

The second question regards the rest of the world. Will China be able to keep its momentum if the rest of the world is still mired in the COVID-19 quagmire, especially at a time when the United States is still suffering severely by the pandemic? That is a serious concern, as about 18 percent of China's GDP is tied to exports. In that regard, it is indeed in China's interests to lend a helping hand to those countries that are still struggling, including the countries in Africa, South America and Oceania.

The data shows that China's trade with the U.S. keeps dropping. This is partly due to the pandemic and partly due to the inevitable decoupling drive pushed by the Trump administration. There is not much we can do on this side of the Pacific, other than patiently waiting for results of the U.S. election, if the results may change the tide.

America, like China, may also have its V-shaped recovery time as alluded to by Brainerd and Siegler in their unconventional-wisdom paper, but it just has to be after the virus. 

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