Severing ties with China isn't in India's interest

Editor's note: This article combines two excerpts: "Prospects for India China Trade After Galwan" which was first published in The Shillong Times on July 6, 2020, and "Priorities for the govt: War, Bihar, or Atma Nirbharta?" first published in The Free Press Journal on July 6, 2020. The article reflects the authors' views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

There's no winner out of China-India conflict. Since military personnel from both countries engaged in a standoff in the Galwan Valley, two sides have been searching for a resolution to the escalating tension.

However, within India, retaliation against China has taken on a virulent form. People have chanted boycotting China while smashing Chinese products under broad daylight. The government has banned 59 Chinese apps, including TikTok, which has close to 660 million installments in India since its launch in 2017. The rise of anti-China nationalistic sentiment is spreading fast across local and national government.

But, confrontation serves no one. The Shillong Times, the oldest English-language daily newspaper in North-East India, published an article on July 6, written by Ajit Ranade, economist, and Senior Fellow at Takshashila Institution. Mr. Ranade stated that India has long tried to emulate China's economic success. The expanding trade, commercial and investment relations between the two countries was the manifestation of the desire. Chinese products only accounted for 5.8 percent of Indian imports in 1999. But, by 2015, the number has risen to 41 percent, and the products India receives now cover from electronics and chemicals to ready-made garments. In total, the trade volume between India and China stands over 100 billion dollars.

India isn't exactly in the best place to be burdened with slipping away from this relationship. R.N Bhaskar, journalist and consulting editor with The Free Press Journal, an Indian English-language newspaper established in 1928, wrote an analysis on India's economic status. According to Bhaskar, since the current government assumed power in 2019, the Indian economy has suffered downturns. COVID-19 has exacerbated the situation.

Conflict with China makes matter even bleaker. "The (Indian) government has stopped the one avenue through which investments could have poured in," wrote Bhaskar. The conflict with China might put a dent on India's trade deficit, but Bhaskar analysis believes that the "cost of doing so could be many times higher, especially at a time when India can hardly afford it, and also when few other countries are likely to offer financial support to India."

There has been the sentiment that India could supplant China's position as the world's leading manufacturer and exporter. However, Ranade points out that the process is more difficult that one would imagine. Tim Cook, Apple's Chief Executive, said that Apple isn't staying in China because of the low labor cost but because of the inability to "source that talent anywhere else." And recently, China has a growing expertise in tech. "In fields like Artificial Intelligence, Electric cars, and Solar Energy, it has emerged as one of the top global players," Ranade says.

Border conflict needs a resolution. But resolving the issue by catering to anti-China nationalistic sentiment will not be beneficial.

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