Will national security legislation for HK rejuvenate HK's economy?
Sai Na

According to official data released on July 20, the April-June unemployment rate in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) climbed to 6.2 percent, and the underemployment rate reached 3.7 percent.

The Secretary for Labor and Welfare Law Chi-kwong said in a statement that the April-June unemployment rate is "the highest in more than 15 years," and the underemployment rate is "the highest in close to 17 years."

The latest labor force statistics published by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) in the HKSAR show the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points from 5.9 percent in March-May 2020, and the underemployment rate increased from 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent. 

"Analyzed by sector, the unemployment rate of the consumption-and tourism-related sectors combined edged up to 10.7 percent in April- June 2020, the highest since August-October 2003 after the onslaught of SARS," the secretary added.

An aerial view of Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor, south China, June 27, 2017. /Xinhua

An aerial view of Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor, south China, June 27, 2017. /Xinhua

Read more: Hong Kong's April-June unemployment rate increases to 6.2%, highest in over 15 years

Since the start of the violent protests last June, Hong Kong's economy has had a much bumpier road. According to the C&SD, the city's economy declined 1.2 percent year on year in 2019. With its economic performance less robust, the "Pearl of Orient" saw its first annual reduction in a decade.

Chilling winter for the hospitality industry

Among the tourism-related sectors, Hong Kong's guest houses become severe victims. Although it is summertime, the hospitality industry has been experiencing "winter" for almost a year. 

"Mr. Leong, I closed my guest house. Hope I can see you again." Calls like this one abound since last June. "I'm saddened by such calls," said David Leung, the founder and chairman of the Hong Kong Guest Houses Association (HKGHA).

There are around 2,300 government-licensed guest houses in Hong Kong, according to the HKGHA. Each of them has about 10 rooms and can host roughly 20 people at full capacity. Before opening up, guest house owners would register with the HKGHA. They would also notify the association if closing down.

Main streets in Hong Kong usually are packed with locals and tourists from around the world, even at night. /VCG

Main streets in Hong Kong usually are packed with locals and tourists from around the world, even at night. /VCG

Violent protests began to break out in this Asian shopping hub last June. For the rest of the year, clashes between protesters and police, demonstrators vandalizing government office buildings and setting fire to metro stations were frequently in the news.

Social unrest emptied Hong Kong's Disneyland and its bustling high streets and back lanes that used to be packed with international travelers, dealing a crushing blow to many local industries. 

"Since last June, I watched the occupancy rate (of Hong Kong's guest houses) drop from 80 percent to 70, 60, 50...by December 2019, the rate declined to only 20 percent," Leung told CGTN. "Travelers read the news, and they were deterred from coming to Hong Kong."

According to the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the number of tourists to Hong Kong began to drop in July 2019, falling by 4.8 percent year on year. A month later, it plummeted by nearly 40 percent. 

Three hundred guest houses were closed between June and December in 2019, according to the HKGHA. 

Protesters clash with police during a rally at Tsuen Wan, in Hong Kong, China, August 25, 2019. /CCTV

Protesters clash with police during a rally at Tsuen Wan, in Hong Kong, China, August 25, 2019. /CCTV

"Originally, we thought 2020 would be better," Leung said. For him, it's like one disaster after another.

According to HKGHA's statistics, the remaining 20 percent occupancy rate since last Christmas has been wiped out by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic this February, and two hundred more accommodations shut their doors.

"(Since the outbreak of the epidemic), the guest house occupancy rate has become zero percent. It is literally zero now. The remaining number of guest houses (about 1,700) is shrinking on a daily basis, and you get a new total every day," Leung said. 

As the hospitality association chairman explains, Hong Kong's tourism industry usually prospers during the summer holiday, during which the occupancy rate can reach 90 percent. Yet neither the last summer nor this year's holiday gave these family hotel owners the lucrative guest attendance they had anticipated. 

Violent protests have continued for a year. This picture shows riot police dispersing demonstrators taking part in an illegal assembly at Mong Kok in Hong Kong, south China, June 12, 2020. /Reuters

Violent protests have continued for a year. This picture shows riot police dispersing demonstrators taking part in an illegal assembly at Mong Kok in Hong Kong, south China, June 12, 2020. /Reuters

Even worse, some of the guest house owners are retirees, who considering the hospitality industry stable, either invested all their savings into opening a guest house or borrowed money from the bank to do so.

For those who borrowed money, life has become a nightmare. "Although they have closed down the guest houses, they still have to pay back loans of up to millions of Hong Kong dollars," Leung said.

Residents' livelihood

Impacted by the violent protests, residents in Hong Kong aren't living an easy life either.

"The worst months were October and November last year for my area," said Victor Chan, vice chairman of the Greater Bay Area Youth Association, which often conducts community work in Hong Kong.

Chan lives in Tseung Kwan O, an eastern district of the city, and described the experience to CGTN.

"Tseung Kwan O was hit hard (by violent protesters) ... traffic lights were smashed, roads were covered with junk and turnstiles and ticket vending machines inside MTR were destroyed," he said.

An information desk at an MTR station that was smashed by violent protesters in Hong Kong, China. /MTR

An information desk at an MTR station that was smashed by violent protesters in Hong Kong, China. /MTR

"People cannot get out because metro stations have been damaged. In fact,  all modes of transportation were paralyzed, no matter if you wanted to drive or take a subway," Chan recalled.

Peaceful protests were also held, and people walked orderly in designated zones and rationally expressed their demands. But violent protesters often appeared outside the specified protest areas, irrespective of the time and location, wreaking havoc in their wake. They called for "freedom," but what they actually did was to send the city's economy and its residents' livelihood into a darker future.

NSL and the future

China's lawmakers on June 30 voted unanimously to adopt the national security legislation (NSL) for the HKSAR. It is seen as a "resolute" effort taken by the central government to address secession, subversion, terrorist activities and collusion with foreign forces. Many people also view it as a law that could bring peace to China's Hong Kong by discouraging violence and vandalism.

"People are quite keen to know about this legislation and whether it can really prevent the violence," said Chan, who had conducted a petition on the NSL and collected 2,000 signatures from residents in just one week. Around 10,000 people are living in his community in Tseung Kwan O.

"It can be seen that since the launch of the NSL, the number and scale of the violent protests are vividly decreasing, with some politicians who used to lead Hong Kong's secession campaigns declaring quitting politics," Chan said.

Residents celebrate the passage of the national security legislation for the HKSAR in Causeway Bay of Hong Kong, south China, June 30, 2020. /Xinhua

Residents celebrate the passage of the national security legislation for the HKSAR in Causeway Bay of Hong Kong, south China, June 30, 2020. /Xinhua

The NSL facilitates the restoration of Hong Kong's economy by ensuring social order, improving the legal system and emphasizing the maintenance of Hong Kong's  high degree of autonomy under the principle of "One Country, Two Systems."

"Since the enactment of the NSL, there has been a return of confidence in business circles," said Dennis Ng, president of the Chinese Manufacturers' Association of Hong Kong. "The market environment out there has become more alive than before."

"For instance, catering services and the retail industry are looking better," he added.

The confidence is also reflected in Hong Kong's stock market. Although the city is experiencing a new wave of COVID-19 cases, this month has been particularly lucky for shareholders. Sharp rises continued for almost a week since July 1, marking the official start of a bull market and compensating for much of the loss over the past few months due to the COVID-19 pandemic and political uncertainty.

The Committee for Safeguarding National Security of the HKSAR convenes its first meeting in Hong Kong, China, July 6, 2020. /Xinhua

The Committee for Safeguarding National Security of the HKSAR convenes its first meeting in Hong Kong, China, July 6, 2020. /Xinhua

The real estate market also seems to be booming. According to Hong Kong's Zeal Asset Management, many Hong Kong residents invest mainly in the property market. Based on the Centa-City Leading Index, an index compiled by Centaline Property Agency and the City University of Hong Kong that reflects local private residential property prices, there have been decreases of more than 8 percent between June 2019 and March 2020. 

After the enactment of the NSL, property prices have appeared to stabilize, with data showing people's willingness to buy property has even increased.

"No matter buying the first home or second, a lot of people need to leverage, which is increasing risk by borrowing money...so the property data really shows people's growing confidence in the society," said Daniel Poon, deputy CIO of Zeal Asset.

People wait for a subway at an MTR station in Hong Kong, China, July 14, 2020. /Reuters

People wait for a subway at an MTR station in Hong Kong, China, July 14, 2020. /Reuters

"As an international financial center, the restoration of social order and stability in Hong Kong is extremely important for the future business environment," said Paul Chan, financial secretary of the HKSAR government.

"For one, more domestic enterprises that have gone public overseas are expected to have second listings in Hong Kong … and next, the development in the sci-tech and finance sectors in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is presenting a lot of opportunities for Hong Kong," he said. "We'll make good use of these opportunities."

Indeed, thanks to its free market economy, low tax regime, investor protection, close currency link to the U.S. dollar and no tariffs on imported goods, Hong Kong has been ranked among the top five best countries and regions for business multiple times by Forbes. It has an abundance of advantages with a stable social environment. 

"We trust in this law (NSL)," Leung said. "In a few months, we hope those international travelers will come back for business and for leisure."

"The NSL is our future," he said.