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On August 15, in a speech to commemorate India's Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed the need to strengthen the country's army and become "self-reliant" in its defense production.

Although India has traditionally had disputes with many of its neighbors and therefore felt compelled to pursue strong military capabilities, this announcement is believed to have two main targets, China and Pakistan, said Zhao Gancheng, senior fellow and director of South Asia Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. Especially since the relationship between China and India has been spiraling downwards following the June China-India border crisis, Zhao believed that Modi's decision to further build up the country's military was meant to send China a harsh warning.

Should China be worried? On the one hand, experts like Huang Yunsong, researcher on South Asia studies in Sichuan University don't think China should be too concerned. He pointed out that India had long harbored the ambition to modernize its defense and pursue self-reliance in defense production. However, the reality is, the country's goal in improving its defense capability has long been overshadowed by its actual ability to deliver results. And after a long-running endeavor, India's ability to produce its own weapons is still one of its major weaknesses, said Huang.

However, as the country strengthens its military ties with major military powers, China also can't afford to overlook such an ambition. Notably, since this century, the U.S. has moved towards forging closer ties with India, and significantly increased its weapon exports to India. Especially under the Trump administration, although skirmishes on the trade front have erupted in the past that would from time to time strain the two countries' relations, overall, the U.S. has shored up its support to India in terms of weaponry export. For example, Huang mentioned that under the Trump administration, the U.S. has increased the types of weapons sold to India, some of which would otherwise only occur if the U.S. was dealing with an ally.

Then what does it mean to China and how should it handle its increasingly acrimonious relationship with India? Since the recent border clash, boosted by India's jingoistic domestic media, China-India tensions have reached a new high where India's policy towards China has swerved to even more confrontations. The Modi government is even contemplating decoupling from China economically, which will be nothing short of disastrous.

Many in China also worry that India would inch even closer to the U.S. in the future, which would pose even greater threats to China. Joe Biden, in recent days, also promised that if he's elected, he would make strengthening relationship with India one of his priorities.

That said, Ning Shengnan, assistant research fellow on South Asia at the China Institute of International Studies, believed that the relationship between China, U.S. and India, like relations between any major powers, is in a fluid situation and it's not so certain yet if India would want to enter an alliance with the U.S. to counterbalance China. Although domestically there has been such calls, India has always perceived itself as a major power and has not been particularly interested in being part of another country's alliance system.

To a certain degree, India's attitudes towards China have also been affected by the current international environment which has been increasingly unfavorable to the latter. Presently, India is capitalizing on the U.S.-China tensions for its own end. But with dynamics changing in their relations and changes emerging in the international environment, Ning believed all these countries may adjust their policies in the future and China still needs to wait and see.

Echoing her message that China should be cool-headed in managing the new changes in bilateral relations, Huang also believed that India would not necessarily fully decouple from China. He noted that although the U.S. has been waging a "war" against China, with Mike Pompeo using every trick trying to win over hearts and minds to isolate China, there have been countries in the Southeast Asia, Middle East and even in Europe that have not wanted to go along with America's position. He believed that India has its judgement on the issue and if it decided to start a full-on battle against China, given China's weight in the world, that would only cause India itself tremendous pain.

Currently, what China can do is to pursue more dialogue, experts say. As India banned 49 apps from China including WeChat, which is the most widely used messaging app in China, channels of communications on the interpersonal level are in danger of being clogged up. Both China and India have distrust and concerns of their own. But there are also common grounds. Like Chinese ambassador to India Sun Weidong stated following the June border clash, what the two countries need to do is to have more conversations on managing disputes and cooperating on areas of mutual interest because neither side would benefit from continuous confrontations.

By Xu Sicong

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