"We held the elections and until you kill me, there won't be any new elections," said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on August 17 during his visit to a state-owned factory in Minsk in response to the chants of "leave!" by a group of workers.

The "leave chorus" was not in isolation; thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Minsk demanding the resignation of the leader who has been ruling the country for 26 years.

Lukashenko's claims of a landslide victory with 80 percent of vote, securing him a sixth term in office, culminated in the biggest protests the country had ever seen, with the opposition accusing him of "stealing the election" and using "excessive force to suppress peaceful demonstrations."

Allegations of a rigged election, followed by unprecedented mass protests have thrown Lukashenko into the spotlight. Dubbed by Western media as the "last European dictator," the "most Soviet-like remaining leader" was once hailed as a statesman for playing a pivotal role in the country's economic success after acceding to power in 1994, a year after Belarus declared independence from the Soviet Union.

"Alexander Lukashenko is a unique politician, he's an old school politician unlike many European leaders," Nikola Mikovic, a Serbian journalist who's covered Belarus for over a decade, described Lukashenko in an interview with CGTN Digital.

"I think he's not a dictator… he now had the opportunity to impose real hardcore dictatorship in Belarus, there were rumors that he would impose martial law and would arrest thousands of activists, politicians and NGOs, and shut down opposition websites but he didn't do that … his politics is about balancing, for the past 26 years he's been balancing between Russia and the West," Mikovic added.

But some other experts do not agree. According to Jaroslav Romanchuk, a 2010 presidential election candidate and the head of the Scientific Research Mises Center in Minsk, imposing martial law or a state of emergency is not an option for Lukashenko.

"When you have dozens of major state enterprises on strike, when you have police being severely criticized and so when you see you are becoming a very unpopular figure among those who have been very supportive of you all these years, you cannot do that because then there would be a backlash," Romanchuk told CGTN Digital.

"For three days, Belarusians were beaten severely, the authorities probably thought that that would be the end of all street action, but the reaction of Belarusians was the opposite," he added.

Mikovic observed that after the initial response Lukashenko has altered his approach.

"The riot police did crack down on protesters but after that it looks like they changed their approach and now you can see that opposition supporters are freely marching all over Minsk and other parts of Belarus, which means that Lukashenko has made some small concessions to the opposition so some protesters who were arrested have been released and now they can freely protest and they don't even have to ask for permission from the police which was the case in the past."

But Romanchuk claims that not all political prisoners and protesters have been released and believes that the "so-called concessions" are mere diversionary tactics.

"He did not talk about the major demand of the protesters of holding an election in Belarus again. All these concessions are ways to kill time and to cushion the pressure in the society especially among the workers."

Humble beginnings and rise to power

So, who is Alexander Lukashenko and what has changed?

Sixty-five-year-old Alexander Lukashenko, the only president Belarus has ever had, was born in a small village in 1954 to a single mother. Belarus was then part of the Soviet Union. He served in the Soviet border troops from 1975 and the army from 1980 and graduated from the local agricultural academy in 1985. The same year, he started as the director of a collective state farm.

He became popular as an anti-corruption crusader while working for the Supreme Council in 1990. He later headed an anti-graft committee of the parliament in 1993.

"Based on his investigations, his energy and his popularity, he managed to get more of the votes. Belarus was the last of all Soviet Union republics that started reforms. So, we are late reformers. And Lukashenko represented new people who could pursue reforms in the socially oriented way," Romanchuk said. "He wanted macro-economic stability that was not part of our economic policy."

Romanchuk credits an oil boom for Lukashenko's economic performance. "The oil boom definitely helped him get into the popularity card. From 1995-2005, he doubled the GDP in U.S. dollar terms and then from 2005-2008, he doubled the GDP again from 30-60 billion [U.S.] dollars. The average economy growth that time was very close to that of China, around 7 to 7.5 percent annual growth rate from 2002-2009, and that was remarkable. That was the peak of his popularity," Romanchuk said.

"This lasted until the time the old sources of growth began to wane and competition was very intense in the Russian market, and if we take the last 10 years, the average annual GDP growth was less than 0.9 percent, three to four times less than that of the world and seven times less than that of China," he added.

According to Romanchuk, the support base Lukashenko had from 1994 to 2010 changed dramatically because of the plunging economy and "bureaucracy becoming more inefficient and arrogant." He also said that the president's decision to not impose lockdowns amid the coronavirus pandemic also "angered a lot of Belarusians."

In July, the Belarusian leader advised the people to drink vodka and go to the sauna to stay healthy and stave off the virus.

An accidental challenger

Amidst the winds of change emerged an unlikely opposition face, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. The 35-year-old former schoolteacher and a stay-at-home mother decided to challenge the seasoned politician after her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a Belarusian blogger and opposition leader, was arrested in May. 

Tikhanovskaya fled to Lithuania in early August after disputing the election results. Later, she issued a video saying that the "tough decision to leave the country" had to be taken for the "sake of my children."

Many opposition protesters claim Tikhanovskaya as the "real winner" of the polls. But according to Romanchuk people on the streets are "not in favor of Tikhanovskaya but in opposition of Lukashenko."

Mikovic believes that Tikhanovskaya is an accidental leader.

"She's not a politician at all, she does not have any experience. So, she was just selected as someone who could run against Lukashenko," Mikovic said. "Many people in Belarus, especially opposition supporters, would be ready to vote for literally Mickey Mouse just to replace Lukashenko. 

"I am not sure if such people are in the majority because Lukashenko certainly has his own supporters."  

According to Mikovic, Lukashenko is "supported by elderly citizens and also by the rural population."

"We can say that but there are young people who support Lukashenko as well, but a majority of Belarusian youth is against Lukashenko and many of them are pro-West, pro-EU," Mikovic said. "We see his supporters staging rallies all over … so he's trying to mobilize his supporters now."

However, Romanchuk says that in the current scenario "you can hardly see any single homogenous social group who would wholeheartedly support Lukashenko."

What's next for Belarus?

So, where does this all end? On August 17, Lukashenko announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to "provide comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus."

Soon after, the Kremlin released a statement saying it was "confident" of a swift resolution in the matter. "These problems should not be exploited by destructive forces seeking to harm the mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries."

Lukashenko, who has led two referendums on a closer union with Russia, has been, in the recent past, critical of Putin's proposal to unite both states into a single entity.

"Russia is a country that Lukashenko criticized severely in the last year, Russia was almost accused of violating Belarusian sovereignty. Relations between Russia and Belarus since 2010 have been down and almost frozen. And right now asking Russia for help definitely has its consequences," Romanchuk said.

According to Mikovic, "Russia is not interested to keep subsidizing Belarusian economy and providing cheap gas and oil to Belarus and they will definitely have to redefine their relations with or without Lukashenko in power. But now he will have to make some concessions with Russia to stay in power. I think for now he will survive, just for now. But he will be weakened, because he's already made some concessions so he's not the old strong man. He will keep making concessions to stay in power."