Would Biden change China-U.S. relations?
Updated 16:29, 17-Oct-2020
Huang Jiyuan
04:00

A China watcher looking at the Democratic National Convention might well think the Democrats don't much care about the Asian country. Other than a brief mention of the U.S. reliance on Chinese medical goods, even presidential candidate Joe Biden doesn't seem interested.

When a politician keeps his or her viewpoint under wraps, it could show ignorance, indifference, or opinion that is not yet made up.

Biden could hardly be associated with the first two. In fact, he had a pretty solid and rosy view about China not so long ago. During a campaign event in mid-2019, Biden said that "China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man… guess what, they are not a competition for us."

But as the campaign has heated up, his rhetoric changed. With the American public shifting against China and Trump playing up the issue, Biden changed his tune.

At the Democratic debate on December 19, 2019, Biden claimed that "We should be moving sixty percent of our sea power to that area of the world to let, in fact, the Chinese understand that they are not gonna go any further."

It is almost a rite-of-passage for presidential candidates to change policy mid-campaign. Sometimes it is born out of a genuine change of mind, sometimes it is for the sake of winning the race.

Todd Mariano, U.S. Director of Eurasia Group, believes the change is the Biden campaign's strategy. "At the moment, the Biden campaign is actually running ads portraying President Trump as weak on China. I think this is a strategy the campaign is testing. I think they recognize Biden's record, at minimum, leaves him open to charges from Trump that he is soft on China," Mariano stated during an interview with Yahoo Finance.

The DNC's platform confirms such a turn. Its Asia-Pacific section lists how Democrats propose to be tough on China.

The platform suggests that, just like the Trump administration, Democrats would confront China over issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang. The one-China principle was omitted from the platform. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and Uygur Human Rights Policy Act would play a central role in President Biden's diplomacy.

But the platform does have to emphasize that "unilateral tariff wars" and a "new Cold War" are undesirable. The party says it would ensure "U.S.-China rivalry does not put global stability at risk."

According to the Pew Research Center's July 14 – July 16 survey, 73 percent of U.S. adults view China unfavorably. If hints about compromise and cooperation with China are picked up by the electorate, they may not be popular.

However, China's conspicuous absence from four days of speeches at the DNC indicates Democrats don't want the issue to hinder or define Biden's candidacy. And by not defining the candidacy, it leaves room to maneuver in a Biden presidency. Mariano commented: "Does Biden need an absolutely detailed playbook of what he is going to do with China on the campaign trail? No, he mainly needs some campaign slogans and a general conception for what he is going to do with China." As for the actual China policy, Mariano believes that it will be a major piece of Biden's agenda during his first year in office, and he will make a decision based on the advice from various camps.

Can Biden help forge a different China-U.S. relationship? His own views seem to differ from Trump's. But Biden has shown that he's willing to adapt to public opinion. Even if he makes it to the White House, public opinion will always oscillate. There's no guarantee which way the wind blows, there's no guarantee his policy would be consistent.

So before trying to answer, "can he deliver?" We should ask: "Would he?"

Scriptwriter: Huang Jiyuan

Video editor: Feng Ran

Cameraman: Yang Yang

Managing editor: Zhao Yuanzhen

Chief Editor: Li Shou'en

Senior producer: Bi Jianlu

Managing director: Mei Yan

Supervisor: Fan Yun

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