Economist: Fed's shift may pose financial risks globally
By Global Business
03:24

While the Federal Reserve's "historic" shift in strategy was largely expected by markets, with major indices showing gains, a bank economist warned on Friday that the U.S. central bank's move may in fact increase financial risks globally.

Wang Dan, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China), said that the prolonged close-to-zero interest rates may create "dangerous" divergence between stock valuations and economy fundamentals.

"We think that market investors will continue to expect low interest rates. That would drive more capital inflow into the stock market, first in the U.S. stock markets.

"This in turn will drive up divergence between stock market valuation and economic fundamentals. This can be very dangerous. So by stating this in a very aggressive stance, the Federal Reserve is providing good incentive for investors but, it is increasing the financial risk globally," Wang told CGTN.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unveiled the central bank's new approach to monetary policy that now puts new weight on bolstering the labor market, and less on concerns over inflation. This revised approach is expected to keep interest rates, which are already near zero, low for years to come.

Powell said this in a speech delivered virtually for the central bank's annual policy symposium traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Wang said that such near-zero interest rates may be somewhere between "three to five" years.

"From his speech yesterday, it looks like the inflation target is no longer a number one priority. And this new phrase the 'average inflation targeting' is basically saying, we can forget about the 2 percent inflation target, and in order to stimulate the job market, the Fed is willing to keep interest rates low for a very long time," she said.

Wang: Expect financial risks in emerging economies too

Expounding on how risks may spread globally, Wang said the low interest rate environment in the U.S. will likely drive down interest rates in other countries as well.

"So we'll see a bigger divergence basically in all the stock markets, with economic fundamentals in the global markets. The stock market is supposed to be reflecting economic and corporate fundamentals, but now because of the Fed's new policy, the valuations of the stocks will go up, but the economic recovery is not up yet," she said.

Wang added that speculative investors may worsen the situation, as "hot money" may flow into emerging markets given how low interest rates are in the U.S.

"And most of that money will stay in stocks and bonds, and that can drive up financial risks in those countries as well,"she told CGTN.

Wang also pointed to one unexpected portion of Powell's speech, which was to stress that economic recovery will be a bit more inclusive.

"Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the monetary policy was also in a way also inclusive. Because a lot of people who were in normal circumstances not allowed to borrow were allowed to borrow. And that has in a way, planted the seeds of the financial crisis. It reminds me of too much similarity of the period back then," she said.