Preview on Bucks vs. Heat: Caging Antetokounmpo won't be enough
Li Xiang
Giannis Antetokounmpo (2nd L) of the Milwaukee Bucks tries to break through the defense of the Miami Heat in the game at The Arena at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, U.S., August 6, 2020. /VCG

Giannis Antetokounmpo (2nd L) of the Milwaukee Bucks tries to break through the defense of the Miami Heat in the game at The Arena at ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, U.S., August 6, 2020. /VCG

Three NBA playoff games ended on Saturday: Milwaukee Bucks 118-104 Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets 114-80 Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers 131-122 Portland Trail Blazers.

Two of the winning teams, the Lakers and the Bucks will make the semifinals in their conferences and the Bucks will meet the Miami Heat, which gave the team quite some hard time before the suspension.

Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks is triple teamed by players of the Miami Heat in the game at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida, March 2, 2020. /VCG

Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks is triple teamed by players of the Miami Heat in the game at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida, March 2, 2020. /VCG

Miami know how to put a leash on 'Greek Freak'

Back in March, Miami defeated Milwaukee 105-89 at home, putting an end to their six-straight-win momentum. Giannis Antetokounmpo went 6-18 to get season-low 13 points. Miami's All-Star center Bam Adebayo was good enough in both size and agility to slow Antetokounmpo down and lure him into the defensive trap.

Adebayo would remain one step away from Antetokounmpo so the Greek Freak could not pass him with one stride or grow too fast to be stopped. In this way, Antetokounmpo had to drive against the rim slowly under the obstruction of Adebayo. His court vision was not good enough to find open teammates in the weak side. He could not pass the ball to the teammate he could find because those passing routs were all cut off by other members of Miami.

Bam Adebayo (R) of the Maimi Heat defends Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks in the game at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, October 26, 2019. /VCG

Bam Adebayo (R) of the Maimi Heat defends Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks in the game at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, October 26, 2019. /VCG

When Antetokounmpo entered the paint like this, he did not have the soft touch to put the ball into the basket, especially when Adebayo and (sometimes) others were challenging him there. By the way, Miami had remarkable rebound protection so it would be difficult to chase second-chance points.

If Antetokounmpo tried to post up near the paint, at least two Heat defenders would immediately join hands to trap him and try to drive him out. He lacking the strength and the skills to quickly crash his defender in posting up was the major reason that such defense could work. When Antetokounmpo was pushed away from the free throw line, he could barely pose much offensive threat.

Brook Lopez (C) of the Brooklyn Nets shoots the ball in the game against the Miami Heat at the American Airlines Arena, March 2, 2020. /VCG

Brook Lopez (C) of the Brooklyn Nets shoots the ball in the game against the Miami Heat at the American Airlines Arena, March 2, 2020. /VCG

Of course, such defense is not perfect

Though they did an outstanding job of trapping Antetokounmpo, Miami actually preferred to switch in defense. Adebayo's 2.06-meter-height was another reason they could do so. However, such an undersized squad also meant that Miami would not feel comfortable when 2.13-meter-tall, 128-kilogram Brook Lopez began to post up around the rim. The 32-year-old center had been well-known for his offensive skills in the low bloc before switching to stretch out the space from the 3-point line. During the season restart, Lopez found his posting-up moves back and he could be a problem for Miami's defense.

Moreover, the real key to this series might be in the hands of Khris Middleton. The last type of player teams that prefer to switch in defense want to face is the isolation scorer like Middleton. No matter who switched to defend Middleton, the two-time All-Star swingman always had a way to score, either via jumper after triple threat or penetrating after pump fake.

Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots the ball in the game against the Miami Heat at The Arena, August 6, 2020. /VCG

Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots the ball in the game against the Miami Heat at The Arena, August 6, 2020. /VCG

Now imagine when Middleton has the ball and calls screen from Lopez, how will Miami respond in defense? Please remember, Middleton averaged 4.3 assists in less than 30 minutes per game and Lopez could both roll towards the rim or pop out to the arc after setting screen. While Miami's defense tried to figure out how deal with these two, they must keep an eye on Antetokounmpo and his monster-like athleticism.

Duncan Robinson #55 and Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat. /VCG

Duncan Robinson #55 and Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat. /VCG

Shooters will determine both sides' offense

Though they were rated the seventh-best offensive team in the league, Miami did not have any explosive scorer – Jimmy Butler averaged team-most 19.9 points per game. Instead, they had eight players who reached double-digit points.

Miami played give-and-go in offense most of the time. Adebayo only dropped 15.9 points per game but he could deliver team-high 6.1 assists per game. Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic , Kendrick Nunn and Andre Iguodala all took over the orchestrating role. Moreover, thanks to the existence of shooters like Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder and Tyler Herro, Miami buried 13.4 triples (sixth-most in the league) at a 3-point rate of 37.9 percent (second-best in the league).

As mentioned before, Milwaukee, despite their league-top defense, prioritized rim protection over every thing else and appeared willing to leave some open threes. Miami's chance in this series will rely on whether their shooters can make the opponents pay from downtown.

Kyle Korver #26 and Wesley Matthews of the Milwaukee Bucks. /VCG

Kyle Korver #26 and Wesley Matthews of the Milwaukee Bucks. /VCG

Meanwhile, 3-pointers also play an important role in Milwaukee's offense – the team sank 13.8 triples (fourth-most in the league) and took 38.9 attempts (also fourth-most in the league) per game. One of the reasons they lost to Miami in March was that the whole team only made seven triples at a 3-point rate of 20.59 percent – Miami sank 18 at 48.65 percent, by the way.

Sure Antetokounmpo does not have the best court vision, but with his size, he can still get the ball to open teammate in many cases. If the rest of Milwaukee can keep making those shots, Miami will hesitate each time before they try to trap the Greek Freak.

Game 1 of this series will happen on August 31.