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2020.09.02 18:17 GMT+8

Election 2020: Is rising insecurity changing U.S. opinions on guns?

Updated 2020.09.02 18:17 GMT+8

People wait in a line to enter a gun store in Culver City, California, March 15, 2020. /AP

It may not seem like the most pressing issue for U.S. voters in 2020, but guns are never far from the public discourse.

Last week, as the presidential candidates laid out their own visions for the country, a deadly shooting once again reminded Americans how far apart they stand on guns. During protests over the police shooting of black man Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a 17-year-old militia member, armed with a semiautomatic rifle, shot three protesters, two fatally amid chaos in the street.

Vastly different narratives of the event ensued, with one side accusing the administration of enabling white supremacist killers, and the other framing the gunman's action as a "law and order" defender excising their constitutional rights against "thugs."

In recent months, as social unrest roils many U.S. cities, the country's age-old gun debate has shifted focus from saving lives to people's right to self-defense. At last week's Republican National Convention, a St. Louis couple who face felony charges after brandishing guns at protesters outside their home became the epitome of white suburban America under threat, while President Donald Trump casts himself as the candidate to restore "law and order" by defending citizens' right to arm themselves.

Gun control: Where are we now?

The conflicting perspectives on the Kenosha incident may well explain the country's gun conundrum, with public opinions divided largely along partisan lines. For anyone who feels strongly about the issue on either side, it's always been an easy choice between the two candidates.

Gun ownership in the U.S. has been traditionally associated with white, male and Republican voters, a trend confirmed by research data. In 2016, exit polls indicated that households with gun owners in every state except Vermont voted "overwhelmingly" for Trump.

The National Rifle Association (NRA), the country's most powerful advocate for gun rights, contributed some 30 million U.S. dollars to the Trump campaign in 2016 and has promised to pour more millions into helping him get reelected. However, the gun lobby has recently been embroiled in battles with lawsuit and bankruptcy, weakening its ability to bolster the Republican candidate this year.

Various polls show that more than 90 percent of Americans support expanded background checks to include private and online sales, as well as a ban on assault weapons such as the AR-15 semiautomatic rifle.

Hundreds of thousands take part in the "March for Our Lives" rally in Washington, D.C. on March 24, 2018. /VCG

Despite popular support for more restrictions, every congressional attempt at reforming gun laws in the past was met with fierce pushback from pro-gun groups and officials, who venerate the Second Amendment as fundamental to American liberty. Among them are NRA-backed GOP politicians in federal and state governments.

While many people are sick of the endless mass shooting massacres in the country, the U.S. public's feelings toward guns are more nuanced. Statistics have showed that gun sales in the U.S. usually spike after a mass shooting, ahead of anticipated policy changes and in election years.

The nation's love-hate relationship with guns has so far yielded a status quo, and talks of gun control proven both culturally polarizing and politically costly.

Read more: Are U.S. laws to blame for gun violence?

New owners driving gun sales

In 2020, Americans are buying guns and ammunitions in record numbers since March, when COVID-19 lockdowns began. FBI records of background checks, an indicator of gun sales from licensed dealers, hit an all-time high of 3.9 million in June following nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd.

During coronavirus lockdowns, gun shops were designated as "essential" businesses and allowed to stay open in at least 30 states where nonessential businesses were ordered to close. That reinforced the perception that gun purchases were appropriate and necessary in times like this.

A buyer fills out the legal forms to buy a handgun at a gun shop in New Castle, Pennsylvania, March 25, 2020. /AP

The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) estimates that nearly five million people purchased their first firearm in the first half of 2020 alone. In the same period, gun purchases by African Americans increased by 58 percent.

Among recent buyers, 40 percent are first-time gun owners driven by a perceived need to protect themselves due to pandemic fears and the ongoing unrest, as well as widespread calls to defund the police, according to the NSSF.

"New gun owners could sway future elections," tweeted the NRA in June. "They know anti-gun politicians are the biggest threat to their fundamental right to self-defense."

David Yamane, a sociologist at Wake Forest University, believes that U.S. gun culture has evolved to center on personal protection with the inclusion of women, non-whites, progressives, and LGBTQ people – all of who have been traditional Democratic base. However, although these new owners have helped drive the surge in gun sales out of fear, this will not necessarily translate into pro-gun voting, Yamane told Bloomberg.

In March and April, deadly incidents of unintentional shooting by children increased 43 percent compared to the same period over last three years, according to advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety. While personal safety is a commonly cited reason to acquire firearms, having more guns in the homes or in the street also means more chances of a trigger being pulled and a situation turning lethal.

In this time of uncertainty and turmoil, gun ownership in the U.S. has become less partisan than it has been for a long time. While the cultural divide on guns remains, this election year could see both candidates having to come up with new strategies to calm anxious voters.

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