Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policies, and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The future of Belarus can depend on talks that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko held in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi on September 14. The two leaders reportedly discussed joint projects in the trade-economic, energy and cultural-humanitarian spheres, as well as the integration processes within the Russia-Belarus Union State, although it remains to be seen if their deals will actually be implemented.

Over the past few years, Putin and Lukashenko discussed the Union State integration numerous times, but no progress was made. Ever since it was created in 1999, the Union State of Russia and Belarus exists only on paper, with the exception of the emergence of several supranational bodies and the media.

Originally, this federal-type entity was supposed to have a common parliament, government, customs, currency, judicial and tax systems. In reality, the two sides never agreed on key issues such as single currency, gas price, and common monetary and fiscal policies. Lukashenko repeated on several occasions that he wants "integrations based on equality," but given that Russia is 82 times larger than Belarus, and has far greater economic and military strength than its neighbor, equality between the two countries would be practically impossible.

Also, the Belarusian leader was quite aware that integrations that Moscow proposed would de facto limit Belarusian sovereignty. That is why he started balancing between the Kremlin and the West, aiming to preserve the country's sovereignty, as well as his post. However, situation significantly changed after the August 9 presidential election in Belarus.

According to the Central Election Commission, President Lukashenko won 80 percent of the vote, while his main rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya got only 10 percent. Still, the opposition staged mass protests claiming that the election was rigged. Ever since, the Belarusian president has been facing with demonstrations, labor strikes and foreign-backed attempts to destabilize the Eastern European country. Western powers never recognized his re-election, and neighboring Lithuania even recognized Tikhanovskaya as a "legitimate President of Belarus". Naturally, such actions meant the end of Lukashenko's flirt with the West. He had to turn eastward and ask Russia for help.

During the Sochi talks, Putin confirmed a 1.5-billion-U.S.-dollar loan to Belarus. In the past, Russia reportedly supported Belarusian economy with four billion U.S. dollars annually, be it through loans, subsidies or cheap crude oil and natural gas.

However, at the end of last year, Moscow clearly demonstrated that such a policy is no longer possible. The Kremlin demanded from Minsk to agree on Russia's terms and conditions regarding the Russia-Belarus Union State integrations, in an exchange of cheap energy.

Given that Lukashenko's position has been weakened due to the month-long protests and strikes, and he is no longer welcome in the West, Belarusian leader now has very little room for maneuver, which means that he will likely have to agree at least on some of the Kremlin's requests. The upcoming weeks and months will show what concessions Lukashenko had to make to Putin in order to get financial assistance, as well as Russia's support.

On the other hand, prior to Putin-Lukashenko meeting, Tikhanovskaya, based in Lithuania, warned the Russian leader that "whatever he accepts and whatever he agrees on during the meeting in Sochi – it will not have legal force, as all agreements signed with illegitimate Lukashenko will be reviewed by the new Belarusian government."

However, if Putin and Lukashenko managed to agree on key issues such as energy, security and economy, there will unlikely be any new Belarusian government, as Lukashenko will manage to preserve his post, either until his term expires in 2025, or until the country's constitution is changed, which is something that he announced and the Kremlin supported.

In the meantime, in the case the agreement has been made, the two countries are expected to deepen their alliance. It is worth noting that Putin and Lukashenko reportedly held phone conversations six times during August, and the countries' officials, such as prime ministers, foreign and defense ministers, met in both Minsk and Moscow in the past two months.

Also, Belarus is expected to soon re-route its cargo away from the Baltic states' ports to Russia's, which will certainly benefit Russian economy. In other words, in spite of the West-backed anti-Lukashenko protests, Russian influence in Belarus continues to grow.

Thus, a potential but at this point very unlikely Maidan-style coup in Belarus would be seen as Russia's defeat, which is why the Kremlin will likely keep providing support to Lukashenko.

Western leaders, on the other hand, will certainly not twiddle their thumbs. Sanctions on Belarusian officials have already been imposed, and Tikhanovskaya's message to Putin can be interpreted as a signal that the United States and the European Union may eventually impose sanctions on Russia, in case Moscow and Minsk sign agreements on the Union State, or any other issue they discussed in Sochi.

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