Preview on NBA Finals: Lakers are stronger, Heat have their chances
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Jimmy Butler #22 and Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat, Anthony Davis #3 and LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers. /VCG

Jimmy Butler #22 and Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat, Anthony Davis #3 and LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers. /VCG

LeBron James will play the 10th NBA Finals in his career on Wednesday leading the Los Angeles Lakers against the Miami Heat.

It took the Lakers 15 games to finish three series in which they knocked out the Portland Trail Blazers, the Houston Rockets and the Denver Nuggets. During this process, the purple and gold took care of three of the most explosive scorers – Damian Lillard, James Harden and Jamal Murray – of the league and limited the most offensively influential center – Nikola Jokic – in today's NBA.

LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers deals with the ball against the defense of Jimmy Bulter of the Miami Heat in the game at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, November 8, 2019. /VCG

LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers deals with the ball against the defense of Jimmy Bulter of the Miami Heat in the game at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, November 8, 2019. /VCG

Meanwhile, the Lakers were top 3 in average points (113.9, No. 3), offensive rebounding (10.1, No. 2), assists (25.9, No. 1), steals (8.5, No. 3), blocks (5.7 No. 1), field goal rate (49.8 percent, No. 1) and points in transition (23.3, No. 1) per game. They also outscored the opponents by league-high 9.6 points in the paint per game.

Should the Heat be scared?

Heat relied on two things on their way, eliminating the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics: zone defense and give-and-go offense. They have Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler, and Andre Iguodala to consume James one-on-one while Bam Adebayo remains instantly prepared for help defense. Adebayo can also match Davis in both speed and size (maybe not that perfect). Crowder and Butler have strong enough lower bodies too to tussle with Davis when he posted up.

Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat tries to deflect a shot by Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers in the game at the Staples Center, November 8, 2019. /VCG

Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat tries to deflect a shot by Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers in the game at the Staples Center, November 8, 2019. /VCG

However, the problem is that the above resources are only good enough to defend one of James and Davis, and Adebayo is required in both stories. On the one hand, he must watch out for Butler in case James powers his way over him; meanwhile, Adebayo has to stay alert on Davis, who has many ways to destroy Crowder. By the way, there's also Howard and JaVale McGee for Adebayo to cover. Those two are not ball-handlers, but both are bigger than Adebayo and are first-class finishers.

The worst scenario for Adebayo will be that he joins Butler to defend James, but the Lakers create an easy shot for Davis with an extra pass; or Adebayo pays attention to both James and Davis, but Howard or McGee scores an easy two.

Jae Crowder of the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida, September 26, 2020. /VCG

Jae Crowder of the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida, September 26, 2020. /VCG

Crowder's defensive performance against Giannis Antetokounmpo created a misconception that he stopped the "Greek Freak" alone. In fact, he only stopped Antetokounmpo from getting close enough to the rim to dunk in some possessions. By contrast, Davis can finish his attack via jumper, floater, and hooker – none of those has to happen in the paint – not to mention that he is a way better off-ball scorer than Antetokounmpo. The Bucks do not have a qualified orchestrator to help Antetokounmpo, but the Lakers have James and Rajon Rondo to handle the ball.

Sure the Heat can put Adebayo on Davis from the beginning, but that means 1.98-meter-tall Crowder will have to figure out how to protect the paint while stopping 2.13-meter-tall McGee or 2.08-meter Howard from rattling the rim.

The Heat's offense should hit the Lakers' defense where it hurts the most, theoretically. They tore the Bucks' defense apart because the Bucks invested most defensive attention in protecting the rim and the Heat's shooters were extremely hot during that series; they put the Celtics' defense in a lot of pain because Daniel Theis could not stop Adebayo by himself.

Duncan Robinson #55 and Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat give each other high five in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at the AdventHealth Arena, September 26, 2020. /VCG

Duncan Robinson #55 and Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat give each other high five in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at the AdventHealth Arena, September 26, 2020. /VCG

However, the Heat cannot take them for granted against the Lakers. Adebayo has no advantage facing Davis, Howard, or McGee by himself. He is a great passer in the high post, but his shooting range does not reach the 3-point line, not far enough to create a vacancy in the Lakers' paint. As for 3-point shooting, Crowder must repeat his performance against the Bucks, just like Iguodala has to shoot as he did in Game 6 against the Celtics.

Despite all the above disadvantages, the Heat still stand some chances against the purple and gold. Coach Frank Vogel cannot keep both James and Davis on the court the whole time. When one of them has to sit on the bench, the Heat will have enough defensive resources to take care of the other. Moreover, the off-ball movements of Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic plus their screen plays with Adebayo will make the Lakers' big men – Howard, McGee and Markieff Morris – pay.

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat tries to break the defense of Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the AdventHealth Arena, September 26, 2020. /VCG

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat tries to break the defense of Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the AdventHealth Arena, September 26, 2020. /VCG

The other possible advantage of the Heat is their resilience. The team managed to come back from a double-digit trail multiple times in the series against the Celtics. James already showed signs of aging in several games against the Nuggets. If the Heat can keep the game alive until the fourth quarter, they may have a better chance of defeating the Lakers.

As for the Lakers, since sending a small-ball lineup is unnecessary, they must do it smartly by adding qualified shooters to it. None of the Heat's best shooters – Robinson, Dragic or Herro – is reliable in defense. If the Lakers can create good enough space for James or Davis to finish off his defender one-on-one in mismatch, these periods of the game can produce happy surprises for the Lakers.

LeBron James (C), head coach Erik Spoelstra (L) and president of basketball operations Pat Riley of the Miami Heat pose for a portrait with the NBA Most Valuable Player trophy for James at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida, May 5, 2013. /VCG

LeBron James (C), head coach Erik Spoelstra (L) and president of basketball operations Pat Riley of the Miami Heat pose for a portrait with the NBA Most Valuable Player trophy for James at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida, May 5, 2013. /VCG

Competition on the court aside, this season's Finals will also be special for the following reasons: Both James and Danny Green will be playing the Finals for a third different team; the Heat's president, 75-year-old Pat Riley is attending the 17th Finals in his career – three times as a player, nine times as a coach and five times as team executive; this will be the fifth time in the past 10 years for James and coach Erik Spoelstra to appear in the NBA Finals at the same time – they were partners in the previous four times.