What has changed after UK and EU agree to intensified trade talks?
Updated 19:26, 04-Oct-2020
Freddie Reidy
The flag of the European Union and the Union flag sit on top of a sandcastle on a beach in Southport, United Kingdom, May 9, 2016. /Gettyimages

The flag of the European Union and the Union flag sit on top of a sandcastle on a beach in Southport, United Kingdom, May 9, 2016. /Gettyimages

Editor's note: Freddie Reidy is a freelance writer based in London. He studied history and history of art at the University of Kent, Canterbury, specializing in Russian history and international politics. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

It may not be an earth-shattering development, but the commitment to "intensified" talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union was an important step toward securing a trade deal. What has changed, though, and what can we expect next?

For weeks, there has been growing optimism in London and Europe that a deal may be secured. The FTSE 100 share index has had several false starts over the last couple of weeks, with shares increasing in value at the prospect.

These gains ebbed slightly as the negotiating teams failed to demonstrate significant enough progress to warrant entering "the tunnel" or "submarine" phase of finalizing a deal. This faltering momentum led EU commissioner Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to initiate a video conference on October 3.

The outcome of the meeting was said to be positive, with both sides having "agreed the importance" of securing a trade deal. Despite "significant gaps", both teams have instructed their respective negotiators to "work intensively" in the coming weeks.

The use of the word "intensive" is interesting as Ursula von der Leyen had indicated that she did not favor the "tunnel" or "submarine" analogies hitherto used, instead preferring "intensive," indicating perhaps that negotiations were progressing to a final furlong.

The intervention of Johnson and von der Leyen was a crucial step. With negotiations having been protracted for some time, the alleged intransigence of EU negotiator Michel Barnier is said to have hindered more rapid progress.

Indeed, Barnier is due to meet with German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, on October 5 to update the present President of the Council of the EU on progress ahead of an EU leaders' summit later this month.

It is at this level where the final stumbling blocks are likely to be removed. The respective heads of government are in a greater position to make political compromises and introduce more creative approaches than Michel Barnier or his UK counterpart, David Frost, during negotiations.

It is also at this critical phase that Boris Johnson could also offer to remove the controversial Internal Market Bill, which has so enraged the EU. The Bill seeks to protect internal trade within the United Kingdom in violation of the Irish Protocol signed in December.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at 10 Downing Street in London, England, January 8, 2020. /Gettyimages

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at 10 Downing Street in London, England, January 8, 2020. /Gettyimages

Considered within a global context, there is also a developing desire to secure and repair alliances in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. disengagement and Russian agitation. Speaking on October 2, Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, alluded to this: "in an unstable world, we need to stick together, and therefore there is this clear rationale (for a deal)" and that he was "cautiously optimistic".

While acknowledging in a joint statement that "progress had been made in recent weeks", major policy gaps do remain pertaining to fishing rights and "the level playing field and governance". The latter is two-fold, on the one hand ensuring both parties adhere to the same rules on state aid but are also bound to the terms of the agreement.

While the threat of the proposed Internal Market Bill may prove a useful negotiating tactic for No.10, it also demonstrates a willingness, albeit grudging, to break international law. As such, the EU will certainly seek to make the agreement as watertight as possible. Whether the UK can reconcile tough enforceable terms with the initial motivations for Brexit, could prove pivotal if a deal is to be secured.

Boris Johnson has expressed a focus on the mid-October commission summit as a "moment of clarity" on whether a deal can be struck, with Michel Barnier indicating a more conservative deadline of the end of October.

Either way, the language from both sides has shifted towards resolution. Indeed, mindful of the UK's position, Angela Merkel recognized, "Britain wants more freedoms than just continuing to follow the rules of the single market… and we have to respect that. We have to find the appropriate response."

EU negotiations always go down to the wire, and this deal will be no exception, for now, though, there does appear to be light at the end of the tunnel, which is growing in intensity. 

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)